Daily Gold Trading Report - Thursday, November 5, 2026

(MENAFN- Investor Ideas) ), a leader in mining investing news and home of theExploring Mining Podcast, issues market commentary from Aamir Iqbal, a market analyst that publishes the Daily Gold Trading Report.

Gold pushed further to $4,125 this morning after Wednesday's surge of nearly 3% back above $4,000, and Thursday's trade is holding above $4,100 with $4,135 as the first ceiling. Today's jobless claims and productivity data decide whether the advance extends toward $4,204 or fades back toward $4,085.

Thursday's session is open and gold is trading near $4,125, holding above $4,100 after Wednesday's nearly 3% rally on the United States midterm result, a softer dollar, and falling oil. The TradingView 1-hour capture printed $4,125.365 and the 30-minute capture printed $4,126.100, both with a session high of $4,135.275.

The intraday map

The map for today is drawn from this morning's session and the week's structure. Resistance stacks at $4,215 (R3), the 50-day moving average confluence area, then $4,204 (R2), the 100-day moving average confluence area, and $4,135 (R1), Thursday's session high so far. The pivot sits at $4,125, this morning's live spot at the TradingView capture. Below, $4,100 (S1) is the round level and the 30-minute session low area, $4,085 (S2) is Thursday's 1-hour session low area, and $4,073 (S3) is Thursday's early-morning spot print. The bias is Bullish: price is above $4,100 after reclaiming $4,000 on Wednesday. A sustained hourly close below $4,100 flips the bias to Neutral toward $4,085; a sustained hourly close above $4,135 targets $4,204 and then $4,215.

30m

Why the macro tape turned

The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, in a 10-2 decision, with two policymakers favouring an immediate 25 basis point increase. Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation has stayed above target for about six years and gave no guidance on the next meeting. The next decision is due December 8 to 9, and markets still price a 25 basis point hike at around 80% on CME FedWatch, with snapshots on Wednesday ranging from 79% to 83%. The data calendar is doing the arguing now: September job vacancies rose to about 7.5 million, October ADP private payrolls rose 86,000, beating expectations near 75,000, and the October ISM services index came in at 54.5, slightly softer than expected. Thursday brings weekly jobless claims and preliminary third-quarter productivity figures, and Friday brings the October employment report, which is the next real test of the December hike bet.

The 10-year Treasury yield sits near 4.88% to 4.92%, down from about 4.95% on Tuesday and back below the 5.00% threshold, after the midterm result pushed investors toward bonds and the dollar lower. Holding non-yielding gold while the 10-year pays close to 5% still carries a real opportunity cost, but that cost has eased from Tuesday's level, and it is one reason gold could hold its reclaim of $4,000. The dollar index sits near 101.40, down about 0.1% on Thursday and near its lowest in about a month, after Democrats swept both houses of Congress in Tuesday's midterm elections. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, and the market read the result as gridlock ahead: less room for fresh fiscal expansion, less Treasury borrowing pressure, and a softer growth backdrop.

Crude oil tells the other half of the story. Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel for the first time in almost a month on Wednesday, dropping about 8.6% to $94.70, and West Texas Intermediate fell more than 8%, as traders priced a possible end to the conflict after Vice President Vance said the war was a reason for the Republican losses and President Trump told the Financial Times he had no immediate plans to strike Iran. Qatar-mediated talks between Washington and Tehran have raised hopes that the Strait of Hormuz, through which passes a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas, could reopen. The risk has not passed: a fresh tanker attack in the Strait and limited United States strikes on Qeshm Island are reminders the war is not over, and analysts warn escalation could push oil back above $120. The tug of war is unchanged in shape but flipped in direction for now: falling oil eases inflation expectations and the case for another Fed hike, which supports gold, while any fresh Hormuz headline can reprice oil and safe-haven flows in either direction within hours.

What to watch today

Today's calendar is led by weekly initial jobless claims and preliminary third-quarter productivity figures, plus speeches from Federal Reserve officials, with the October employment report on Friday still to come. Each one can move the December rate bet, and gold with it.

Wednesday's verdict: gold rallied nearly 3%, its biggest daily gain since August, as Democrats swept both houses in the United States midterms, the dollar fell to about a one-month low, and oil plunged on Strait of Hormuz settlement hopes Thursday's follow-through: gold pushed on to $4,135 and is holding above $4,100, turning Wednesday's breakout into the floor for today's trade Claims and productivity today: weekly initial jobless claims and preliminary third-quarter productivity figures, plus Federal Reserve officials speaking Bullish trigger: a sustained hourly close above $4,135 (R1) targets $4,204 (R2) then $4,215 (R3) Bearish trigger: a sustained break below $4,100 (S1) targets $4,085 (S2) then $4,073 (S3)

About the author: I'm Aamir Iqbal, a market analyst. I publish the Daily Gold Trading Report, a professional daily XAU/USD report with exact intraday levels, annotated charts, and full macro coverage, at substack.

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