Global Grey Hydrogen Market Size, Trends, And Forecast (2026 Edition) Industrial Demand And CCUS Retrofits Drive Opportunities
The global grey hydrogen market is valued at US$126.2B in 2025, representing approximately 83.5 Mt of hydrogen, according to the report. Market value is forecast to reach US$138.3B by 2030, reflecting a 1.8% CAGR over 2025-2030. Production volumes are expected to increase by approximately 0.9% annually to around 87.5 Mt by the end of the forecast period.
Grey hydrogen market value remains closely linked to feedstock prices, creating considerable historical volatility. The market rose from US$114.5B in 2021 to US$169.4B in 2022 amid the gas-price shock, before declining to US$119.2B in 2024 and recovering to US$126.2B in 2025. This represents a historical CAGR of 2.5%. A further increase to approximately US$142.8B is projected for 2026, driven by the Middle East conflict and disruption to Gulf export routes, which are expected to raise gas, LNG and fertilizer prices. Market values are anticipated to normalise thereafter.
Natural gas remains the leading grey hydrogen feedstock, accounting for approximately 76% of global volume. Coal-based production contributes around 23% and is concentrated primarily in China, while oil represents approximately 1%. Steam methane reforming dominates production technology with a share of about 66%, followed by coal gasification at 23% and ATR/POX at 11%.
ATR is the fastest-growing configuration within new-build reforming projects. However, most new ATR capacity is being developed with CCUS, shifting this output into the blue hydrogen segment. Captive on-site facilities account for approximately 86% of grey hydrogen supply, compared with 14% from merchant production.
Ammonia is the largest application, representing around 40% of global demand. Refining accounts for approximately 33%, followed by methanol at 19% and fossil-based DRI steel at 6%. Methanol and DRI steel are expected to deliver the fastest application growth through 2030.
Asia Pacific leads the global grey hydrogen market with approximately 51.1% of 2025 value, supported by substantial production and consumption in China and India. The strongest regional growth is forecast in Africa at a 3.8% CAGR, Latin America at 3.3% and the Middle East at 2.7%. Europe is expected to remain broadly flat as carbon pricing and emissions policies affect project economics.
Demand continues to be supported by refining, fertilizer and chemical production, established SMR and gasification assets, existing pipeline infrastructure and production costs of approximately US$1-3/kg in markets with access to competitively priced natural gas or coal. However, the sector faces mounting emissions-related pressure. Grey hydrogen produced from gas emits approximately 10-12 kg CO?-eq/kg, while coal-based production generates around 22-26 kg CO?-eq/kg. Global hydrogen production emitted approximately 920 Mt CO? in 2023.
Carbon pricing, renewable-hydrogen quotas and government incentives are reshaping the competitive environment. Key measures include the EU ETS, CBAM coverage of hydrogen and ammonia from 2026, India's Green Hydrogen Mission and revisions to US tax-credit policies. Nevertheless, low-emissions hydrogen production remained at only around 1 Mt in 2025, while committed projects are expected to exceed 4 Mt by 2030. As a result, displacement of grey hydrogen is likely to remain gradual and focused on major industrial clusters.
Competition includes industrial-gas companies such as Linde, Air Liquide and Air Products; integrated energy and chemical producers including Sinopec, Aramco and ExxonMobil; and nitrogen producers such as CF Industries and Yara. Technology investment is focused on CCUS retrofits, ATR, advanced catalysts, heat integration and digital plant optimisation.
Carbon-policy tightening, gas and coal price volatility, methane-leakage scrutiny and uncertain low-carbon offtake remain the principal market challenges. Despite these pressures, grey hydrogen is expected to remain the backbone of global hydrogen supply through 2030, with market value influenced more by feedstock and carbon costs than by underlying volume growth.
Key Topics Covered
1. Introduction
1.1 Market Overview
1.2 Definition and Scope of the Report
1.3 Grey Hydrogen Industry Value Chain
1.4 Research Methodology
2. Market Size and Growth
2.1 Global Market Snapshot
2.2 Global Grey Hydrogen Market Size and Growth
2.3 Global Grey Hydrogen Market Growth Analysis
2.4 Market Drivers
2.5 Market Trends
2.6 Market Challenges and Restraints
3. Market Segmentation
3.1 Market Segmentation Overview
3.2 By Feedstock / Source
3.3 By Production Technology
3.4 By Supply Mode
3.5 By Application / End-use Industry
3.6 By Region
4. Regional and Country Analysis
4.1 North America
4.1.1 United States
4.1.2 Canada
4.1.3 North America - Country Comparison
4.2 Europe
4.2.1 Germany
4.2.2 United Kingdom
4.2.3 France
4.2.4 Italy
4.2.5 Spain
4.2.6 Netherlands
4.3 Asia Pacific
4.3.1 China
4.3.2 Japan
4.3.3 India
4.3.4 South Korea
4.3.5 Australia
4.4 Latin America
4.5 Middle East
4.6 Africa
4.7 Global Regional Comparison
5. Technology, Economics and Industry Insights
5.1 Grey Hydrogen Production Technology Landscape
5.2 Steam Methane Reforming
5.3 Partial Oxidation and Autothermal Reforming
5.4 Coal Gasification
5.5 Grey Hydrogen Production Economics
5.6 Carbon Emissions and Environmental Impact
5.7 Grey vs Blue vs Green Hydrogen
5.8 Hydrogen Infrastructure and Distribution
5.9 Grey Hydrogen in Key Industries
5.10 Competitive Technology Positioning
6. Competitive Landscape
6.1 Competitive Landscape Overview
6.2 Major Companies
7. Company Profiles
7.1 Linde plc
7.2 Air Liquide S.A.
7.3 Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.
7.4 Sinopec (China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation)
7.5 Saudi Aramco
7.6 ExxonMobil
7.7 CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
7.8 Yara International ASA
8. Strategic Insights and Outlook
8.1 Key Market Opportunities
8.2 Emerging Technology Opportunities
8.3 Strategic Recommendations
8.4 Global Market Outlook
List of Tables [13]
List of Figures [32]
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