Daily Gold Trading Report - Wednesday, November 4, 2026

(MENAFN- Investor Ideas) ), a leader in mining investing news and home of theExploring Mining Podcast, issues market commentary from Aamir Iqbal, a market analyst that publishes the Daily Gold Trading Report.

Gold steadied near $3,948 this morning after Tuesday's slide toward $3,893, but the bounce keeps stalling below $3,972. Today's United States payrolls and services data decide whether the recovery extends toward $3,998 or fades back toward $3,897.

Wednesday's session is open and gold is trading near $3,948, up about $17 from Tuesday's $3,931 close after Tuesday's slide toward $3,893. The 30-minute chart shows Tuesday's dip to $3,897, a bounce to $3,972, then a drift back to the $3,940 to $3,950 zone, with this morning's candles already probing both sides of it.

The intraday map

The map for today is drawn from this morning's session and the week's structure. Resistance stacks at $4,038 (R3), the window high from before Friday's plunge, then $3,998 (R2), the round $4,000 zone, and $3,972 (R1), Tuesday's recovery high. The pivot sits at $3,948, this morning's live spot at the TradingView capture. Below, $3,940 (S1) is the floor of the overnight consolidation, $3,897 (S2) is Tuesday's dip low, and $3,873 (S3) is the window low, Friday's one year low area. The bias is Bearish: price is under its short-term averages and Friday's breakdown is intact. A sustained hourly close above $3,972 flips the bias to Neutral toward $3,998; a sustained break below $3,940 opens $3,897 and then $3,873.

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Why the macro tape is heavy

The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, in a 10-2 decision, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favour of a 25 basis point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation has stayed above target for about six years and gave no guidance on the next meeting. The data since has kept the hawks in charge: third-quarter GDP grew 3.4% at an annual rate, September personal consumption expenditures inflation rose 3.6% year on year with core at 3.1%, the October ISM manufacturing index rose to 55.5, beating expectations of 54.5, and September job vacancies rose on Tuesday according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Markets now price a December hike at 79% on CME FedWatch, up from 74% a day earlier, with the next decision due December 8 to 9, and that expectation is the main weight on gold this morning.

The 10-year Treasury yield sits near 4.95%, up 4 basis points on Tuesday to 4.954%, just under the 5.00% threshold and well below October's peak of 5.3645%. Holding non-yielding gold while the 10-year pays close to 5% still carries a real opportunity cost, and that is why rallies keep meeting sellers. The dollar index sits near 101.78, after hitting a daily low of 101.62 on Tuesday, recovering as stronger United States data and higher yields supported the dollar.

Crude oil tells the other half of the story. Brent crude fell toward $104.77 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate toward $96.63 on Monday, drops of more than 7% on the day, after Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if Washington accepts its terms, through talks run by Qatari mediators. Oil trimmed its losses on Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate back toward $98, as traders tracked conflicting signals: Tehran and Washington are reviewing fresh proposals from mediators on how to resolve their differences and avoid a return to all-out war, but limited United States airstrikes reportedly hit targets on the Iranian island of Qeshm inside the Strait the night of November 2. October was the worst month on record for attacks on shipping in and around the Strait, and Brent still sits far above the roughly $72 level seen before the war began in late February. The tug of war is unchanged: war risk supports defensive demand, while higher oil feeds inflation expectations and the case for another Fed hike, which caps the safe-haven bid. Tuesday also brought the United States midterm elections, with prediction markets tipping the Democrats to recapture the House at odds near 95% and the Senate near 73%, an outcome watched for what it means for fiscal policy and the rate path.

What to watch today

Today's calendar is led by the ADP Employment Change report and the October ISM Services PMI, plus the Treasury refunding announcement, with the October jobs report on Friday still to come. Each one can move the December rate bet, and gold with it.

Tuesday's verdict: gold slipped toward $3,893 as the dollar recovered and the 10-year yield rose to 4.954%, but buyers held $3,897 and pushed it back toward $3,948 Payrolls and services data today: the ADP Employment Change report and the October ISM Services PMI, plus the Treasury refunding announcement Hormuz and Iran wire: oil trimmed its Monday plunge as fresh mediator proposals were reviewed, even as limited United States airstrikes were reported on Qeshm island in the Strait Bullish trigger: a sustained hourly close above $3,972 (R1) targets $3,998 (R2) then $4,038 (R3) Bearish trigger: a sustained break below $3,940 (S1) targets $3,897 (S2) then $3,873 (S3)

About the author: I'm Aamir Iqbal, a market analyst. I publish the Daily Gold Trading Report, a professional daily XAU/USD report with exact intraday levels, annotated charts, and full macro coverage, at substack.

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