Markaz: Kuwait’s Consumer Staples Sector Sole Gainer in October, Up 1.8%
(MENAFN- TRACCS) Kuwait, 04 November 2026: Kuwait Financial Center “Markaz” noted in its Monthly Market Review for the month of October that Kuwait’s equity market declined, in line with other regional markets. Investor sentiment was weighed down by intensifying regional security risks, record disruption to shipping around the Strait of Hormuz, and a sharp downgrade to the IMF’s growth outlook for the GCC. Kuwait’s All-Share Price Index declined 3.7% in October, with the Main Market Index falling 7.0% and the Premier Market Index declining 3.0%. From a sectoral perspective, Consumer Staples was the only sector to post a positive return, gaining 1.8%. Banking stocks declined 2.6% in October, with NBK and KFH shares declining by 0.9% and 3.1%, respectively. Agility Public Warehousing Company was the top-performing Premier Market stock in October, rising 8.6%, supported by a significant asset monetization transaction (Agility subsidiary entered a definitive agreement to sell 100% of its stake in Tristar) during the month.
Kuwait’s non-oil private sector expanded for a third consecutive month in September, with the S&P Global Kuwait PMI at 52.4, easing from August’s six-month high of 53.6. Domestic credit grew 6.3% y/y in September, driven by broad-based lending to households (+5.1% y/y), and businesses (+6.7% y/y), while resident deposits rose 10.8% y/y. Inflation remained contained at 2.2% y/y in July. In international debt markets, Kuwait raised USD 3.25 billion through a Eurobond issuance that attracted USD 9.1 billion in orders, underscoring strong investor confidence. However, the IMF’s October Regional Economic Outlook projects Kuwait’s real GDP to contract 16.7% in 2026 (April forecast: -0.6%), one of the sharpest downgrades in the region, reflecting constraints on oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz.
GCC equity markets declined in October, with the S&P GCC Composite Index down 4.8%. Investor sentiment was weighed down by the worst month for attacks on commercial shipping around the Strait of Hormuz since tracking began in 2017, and by a wave of missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia’s energy and airport infrastructure that raised fears of a wider regional escalation. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul Index fell 5.0%, led lower by financials and materials. SNB and Alinma declined 9.8% and 10.8%, respectively, Al Rajhi Bank fell 5.6%, and Ma’aden fell 7.1%. In the UAE, Dubai’s index fell 3.2%, while Abu Dhabi’s index declined 6.0%, with banks under pressure. FAB declined 6.5%, Emirates NBD 6.4% and Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank 15.0%. Qatar’s benchmark index touched its lowest level in more than six years during the month, though performance was mixed at the stock level.
Across the GCC, non-oil activity continued to improve in September, though data still reflected the conflict’s toll. Saudi Arabia’s non-oil PMI rose to 55.3 from 53.8, its strongest reading since February, on a sharp increase in new orders, although foreign orders declined for a seventh month. The UAE PMI held at a 20-month high of 55.3, with Dubai rising to 54.5, while Qatar’s PMI fell to 47.3, its eighth consecutive month in contraction. In the UAE, real GDP contracted 2.1% y/y in Q2 2026, its first decline in over five years, as non-oil GDP fell 1.1% y/y. Saudi Arabia unveiled an expansionary 2027 budget with spending of around SAR 1.4 trillion and a narrower deficit of 3.6% of GDP (4.9% in 2026), projecting a 12.8% growth rebound in 2027 following an estimated 3.6% contraction in 2026. The IMF’s latest outlooks underscored both the depth of the current shock and the strength of the expected recovery. The sharpest downgrades were for Kuwait (-16.7%), Qatar (-15.6%) and Bahrain (-11.3%), followed by the UAE (-3.9%) and Saudi Arabia (-3.3%), while Oman was revised up to 4.1%. Non-oil growth is projected at -0.8% in 2026 before recovering to 4.5% in 2027. The GCC current account surplus is expected to narrow to 1.3% of GDP from 5.0%, with the fiscal balance moving to a deficit of 2.3% of GDP.
Global and U.S. equity markets declined in October, with the S&P 500 falling 0.9% and the MSCI World Index declining 0.8%. Sentiment weakened after September inflation came in above expectations at 3.7% y/y, triggering a 1.1% single-day decline in the S&P 500. However, robust corporate earnings, with most companies surpassing earnings forecasts, helped moderate the decline. On 28 October, the Fed left rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation remains too high but stopped short of signaling a December increase. Emerging market equities came under pressure in October, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index declining 8.1%. Losses were led by South Korea, where the KOSPI fell 16.2%, and China, where the MSCI China Index declined 7.2%, amid concerns over AI profitability, subdued consumer demand and tighter technology export restrictions. The IMF’s October World Economic Outlook raised 2026 global growth to 3.1% (from 3.0% in July), with 2027 unchanged at 3.4%.
U.S. Treasury yields declined in October, retreating from multi-decade highs reached at the start of the month. The 10-year yield fell 35 bps to 4.94%, while the 30-year yield declined 33 bps to 5.31% and the 2-year yield fell 32 bps to 4.56%. The curve steepened after the Fed meeting as longer-dated yields edged higher, reflecting persistent supply concerns, with the FY2025-26 fiscal deficit widening to around 6% of GDP.
Brent crude oil prices rose 13.6% in October to USD 117.64/bbl., trading above USD 110/bbl. in the second half of the month, near six-month highs. October recorded the highest number of attacks on commercial shipping around the Strait of Hormuz since tracking began in 2017, with at least 28 vessels targeted, including 11 supertankers. Meanwhile, gold prices fell 6.8% during the month to USD 3,875.02/oz, their lowest level in a year, as surging Treasury yields increased the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.
Global investors will focus on the U.S. midterm elections on 3 November, the December FOMC meeting and incoming inflation and labour data for signals on the Fed’s tightening path. Q3 earnings from mega-cap technology companies will continue to test whether AI-driven demand can justify elevated valuations. In the GCC, markets will be shaped by the developments in the U.S.-Iran negotiations, and prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which the IMF assumes by March 2027. Q3 2026 corporate earnings, particularly from banks, will also provide a read on how resilient earnings have been.
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About Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz”
Kuwait’s non-oil private sector expanded for a third consecutive month in September, with the S&P Global Kuwait PMI at 52.4, easing from August’s six-month high of 53.6. Domestic credit grew 6.3% y/y in September, driven by broad-based lending to households (+5.1% y/y), and businesses (+6.7% y/y), while resident deposits rose 10.8% y/y. Inflation remained contained at 2.2% y/y in July. In international debt markets, Kuwait raised USD 3.25 billion through a Eurobond issuance that attracted USD 9.1 billion in orders, underscoring strong investor confidence. However, the IMF’s October Regional Economic Outlook projects Kuwait’s real GDP to contract 16.7% in 2026 (April forecast: -0.6%), one of the sharpest downgrades in the region, reflecting constraints on oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz.
GCC equity markets declined in October, with the S&P GCC Composite Index down 4.8%. Investor sentiment was weighed down by the worst month for attacks on commercial shipping around the Strait of Hormuz since tracking began in 2017, and by a wave of missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia’s energy and airport infrastructure that raised fears of a wider regional escalation. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul Index fell 5.0%, led lower by financials and materials. SNB and Alinma declined 9.8% and 10.8%, respectively, Al Rajhi Bank fell 5.6%, and Ma’aden fell 7.1%. In the UAE, Dubai’s index fell 3.2%, while Abu Dhabi’s index declined 6.0%, with banks under pressure. FAB declined 6.5%, Emirates NBD 6.4% and Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank 15.0%. Qatar’s benchmark index touched its lowest level in more than six years during the month, though performance was mixed at the stock level.
Across the GCC, non-oil activity continued to improve in September, though data still reflected the conflict’s toll. Saudi Arabia’s non-oil PMI rose to 55.3 from 53.8, its strongest reading since February, on a sharp increase in new orders, although foreign orders declined for a seventh month. The UAE PMI held at a 20-month high of 55.3, with Dubai rising to 54.5, while Qatar’s PMI fell to 47.3, its eighth consecutive month in contraction. In the UAE, real GDP contracted 2.1% y/y in Q2 2026, its first decline in over five years, as non-oil GDP fell 1.1% y/y. Saudi Arabia unveiled an expansionary 2027 budget with spending of around SAR 1.4 trillion and a narrower deficit of 3.6% of GDP (4.9% in 2026), projecting a 12.8% growth rebound in 2027 following an estimated 3.6% contraction in 2026. The IMF’s latest outlooks underscored both the depth of the current shock and the strength of the expected recovery. The sharpest downgrades were for Kuwait (-16.7%), Qatar (-15.6%) and Bahrain (-11.3%), followed by the UAE (-3.9%) and Saudi Arabia (-3.3%), while Oman was revised up to 4.1%. Non-oil growth is projected at -0.8% in 2026 before recovering to 4.5% in 2027. The GCC current account surplus is expected to narrow to 1.3% of GDP from 5.0%, with the fiscal balance moving to a deficit of 2.3% of GDP.
Global and U.S. equity markets declined in October, with the S&P 500 falling 0.9% and the MSCI World Index declining 0.8%. Sentiment weakened after September inflation came in above expectations at 3.7% y/y, triggering a 1.1% single-day decline in the S&P 500. However, robust corporate earnings, with most companies surpassing earnings forecasts, helped moderate the decline. On 28 October, the Fed left rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation remains too high but stopped short of signaling a December increase. Emerging market equities came under pressure in October, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index declining 8.1%. Losses were led by South Korea, where the KOSPI fell 16.2%, and China, where the MSCI China Index declined 7.2%, amid concerns over AI profitability, subdued consumer demand and tighter technology export restrictions. The IMF’s October World Economic Outlook raised 2026 global growth to 3.1% (from 3.0% in July), with 2027 unchanged at 3.4%.
U.S. Treasury yields declined in October, retreating from multi-decade highs reached at the start of the month. The 10-year yield fell 35 bps to 4.94%, while the 30-year yield declined 33 bps to 5.31% and the 2-year yield fell 32 bps to 4.56%. The curve steepened after the Fed meeting as longer-dated yields edged higher, reflecting persistent supply concerns, with the FY2025-26 fiscal deficit widening to around 6% of GDP.
Brent crude oil prices rose 13.6% in October to USD 117.64/bbl., trading above USD 110/bbl. in the second half of the month, near six-month highs. October recorded the highest number of attacks on commercial shipping around the Strait of Hormuz since tracking began in 2017, with at least 28 vessels targeted, including 11 supertankers. Meanwhile, gold prices fell 6.8% during the month to USD 3,875.02/oz, their lowest level in a year, as surging Treasury yields increased the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.
Global investors will focus on the U.S. midterm elections on 3 November, the December FOMC meeting and incoming inflation and labour data for signals on the Fed’s tightening path. Q3 earnings from mega-cap technology companies will continue to test whether AI-driven demand can justify elevated valuations. In the GCC, markets will be shaped by the developments in the U.S.-Iran negotiations, and prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which the IMF assumes by March 2027. Q3 2026 corporate earnings, particularly from banks, will also provide a read on how resilient earnings have been.
- The End -
About Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz”
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