Democratic Sweep A Bigger Win For Asia Than Markets Realize

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Demand for high-end chips is likely to grow more slowly, and the companies making them will trade more erratically. A collapse in demand isn't expected. The world still needs vastly more computing power than it has, and much of it will still be built in America.

Far more important for Asia is what the result does to the dollar and American interest rates.

Democratic control kills any chance of another round of unfunded tax cuts. Bond markets saw it immediately, with the 10-year Treasury yield fell six basis points to around 4.9%, and the dollar slid against major currencies.

I believe both trends will likely run well into 2027, and they amount to a powerful tailwind for the region.

A weaker dollar cuts the cost of servicing dollar debt across Asia. It takes pressure off currencies that have spent much of the past two years defending themselves against a strong greenback.

It also gives Asian central banks something they haven't had in a long time: room to cut rates to support growth without fearing capital will rush for the exit.

Lower yields in America change the maths for global investors too. When US bonds pay less, emerging market equities and debt look more attractive, and history teaches us that this combination has pulled serious money into Asia.

Japan is the exception, however. A firmer yen squeezes its exporters' earnings, and its heavy weighting towards chip-related stocks left it more exposed than most on election night.

Oil adds to the relief. Prices fell as the results came in, and Asia imports enormous quantities of crude. Every drop in the price eases inflation and improves trade balances for India, Japan, South Korea and much of Southeast Asia.

A Congress focused on fuel costs at home will want energy prices kept down, and Asia benefits from that pressure without lifting a finger. Sadly, though, tariffs won't disappear. Most of that power sits with the White House, and Democrats can't strip it away very easily.

What changes is the friction. Hearings, funding battles, and closer scrutiny of trade deals and investment pledges are coming. Korea, in particular, will be watching whether its investment commitments to the US come under fresh negotiation.

Policy will be slower and messier as a result. For exporters across Asia, slower and messier is easier to plan around than sudden tariff announcements on a Friday evening.