Expert: Medinsky's Participation In Abu Dhabi Talks Signals Return To Istanbul Agreements
According to him, the appointment of Vladimir Medinsky, an aide to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, as Russia's representative at the talks signals a possible return to the demands Moscow put forward during the Istanbul negotiation process.
"These include reducing the size of the Ukrainian army, restrictions on heavy weapons, the status of the Russian language and church, and recognition of Crimea and Donbas," the expert recalled, outlining Russia's demands.
Zahorodnii said Russia is trying to assess how the political position of U.S. President Donald Trump will change after the midterm congressional elections.
"They will want to understand what position Trump will find himself in: whether he will be destabilized, weakened or strengthened... Russians always play these kinds of games. They have essentially already set Trump up, as he wanted to end the war before the elections," Zahorodnii said.
Read also: Zelensky outlines key topics for trilateral meeting in Abu DhabiHe believes Moscow is using the talks in Abu Dhabi to drag out the process and is trying to separate the issue of Ukraine from economic cooperation with the United States.
"They want to split the negotiation process into two parts so they can talk about illusory economic benefits that do not actually exist in relations with Russia. They want to separate the issues of Ukraine and the United States and hold talks while the war and strikes on Ukraine continue," Zahorodnii said.
In his opinion, a meeting between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is also unlikely, as the Russian leader does not want to recognize Ukraine as an equal party to the negotiations.
"He cannot meet with Zelensky because that would mean recognizing Ukraine's agency, which contradicts the so-called Istanbul agreements. Ukraine does not exist there; there is only an entity to be divided up by the so-called great powers," Zahorodnii said.
The expert believes Ukraine should continue taking part in the negotiation process, even while recognizing that there is little prospect of reaching an agreement quickly.
"These are ritual dances that we have to perform so that they continue providing us with funding and weapons," the expert said.
At the same time, Zahorodnii believes that the systematic destruction of Russian oil refineries by Ukrainian forces could eventually trigger an economic collapse in Russia, which in turn could potentially lead to Putin's removal from power. "Russians understand only the language of force," Zahorodnii concluded.
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