Daily Gold Trading Report - Tuesday, November 3, 2026

(MENAFN- Investor Ideas) newswire), a leader in mining investing news and home of theExploring Mining Podcast, issues market commentary from Aamir Iqbal, a market analyst that publishes the Daily Gold Trading Report.

Gold bounced 2% on Monday to near $3,953, but the rebound stalled at $3,970 and drifted sideways overnight. Today's United States midterm elections decide whether the bounce extends toward $3,998 or fades back toward $3,891.

Tuesday's session is open and gold is trading near $3,947, up about $71 from Friday's $3,875.65 close after Monday's 2% rebound from a one year low. The 30-minute chart shows a sharp spike to $3,970 on Monday, then a sideways drift between $3,940 and $3,970 overnight, with this morning's candles already slipping back toward the bottom of that range.

The intraday map

The map for today is drawn from this morning's session and the week's structure. Resistance stacks at $4,037 (R3), the window high from before Friday's plunge, then $3,998 (R2), the 30-minute window high, and $3,970 (R1), Monday's recovery high. The pivot sits at $3,947, this morning's live spot at the TradingView capture. Below, $3,940 (S1) is the floor of the overnight consolidation, $3,891 (S2) is Monday morning's session low, and $3,872 (S3) is the window low, just under Friday's one year low print. The bias is Bearish: price is under its short-term averages and Friday's breakdown is intact. A sustained hourly close above $3,970 flips the bias to Neutral toward $3,998; a sustained break below $3,940 opens $3,891 and then $3,872.

30m

Why the macro tape is heavy

The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, in a 10-2 decision, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favour of a 25 basis point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation has stayed above target for about six years and gave no guidance on the next meeting. The data since has kept the hawks in charge: third-quarter GDP grew 3.4% at an annual rate, September personal consumption expenditures inflation rose 3.6% year on year with core at 3.1%, and the October ISM manufacturing index rose to 55.5, beating expectations of 54.5, although its prices paid component eased to 75.2. Markets now price a December hike at 72% to 77% on CME FedWatch, up from 70.7% at Friday's settlement, with the next decision due December 8 to 9, and that expectation is the main weight on gold this morning.

The 10-year Treasury yield sits near 4.92% to 4.94%, just under the 5.00% threshold and well below October's peak of 5.3645%, after easing on Monday as falling oil softened the inflation outlook. Holding non-yielding gold while the 10-year pays close to 5% still carries a real opportunity cost, and that is why rallies keep meeting sellers. The dollar index slipped toward 101.66 on Monday, a one-month low, weakening against the euro, sterling, and the Swiss franc while gaining against the yen, which helped gold's rebound without changing the rate story.

Crude oil tells the other half of the story. Brent crude fell toward $108 to $111 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate toward $96 to $101 on Monday, a drop of more than 6% on the day, after indirect talks between the United States and Iran in Doha, run through Qatari mediators, entered a third day with reports that Tehran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days in return for sanctions relief, the release of frozen assets, and a reduced United States military presence in the region. Against that, Iran's Revolutionary Guard said two tankers hit mines in the same waterway, Iran's navy reported another tanker fire on Saturday, and Houthi attacks on Saudi targets continued, while President Trump warned the war would end very soon, one way or the other. October was the worst month on record for attacks on shipping in and around the Strait, and Brent still sits far above the roughly $72 level seen before the war began in late February. The tug of war is unchanged: war risk supports defensive demand, while higher oil feeds inflation expectations and the case for another Fed hike, which caps the safe-haven bid. On Monday, for once, the diplomacy headlines won, oil fell, and gold rose with it.

What to watch today

Today's calendar is led by the United States midterm elections, the week's first big catalyst, with the Treasury refunding announcement on Wednesday, private payrolls and services data the same day, and the October jobs report on Friday still to come. Each one can move the December rate bet, and gold with it.

Monday's verdict: gold gained about 2% to near $3,953 as oil plunged more than 6% on Doha talks, but the December hike bet still rose to 72% to 77% Midterm elections today: the week's first big catalyst, with the Treasury refunding announcement on Wednesday and the October jobs report on Friday Hormuz and Iran wire: Brent fell toward $108 to $111 as talks entered a third day, even as two tankers were reported hit by mines in the Strait Bullish trigger: a sustained hourly close above $3,970 (R1) targets $3,998 (R2) then $4,037 (R3) Bearish trigger: a sustained break below $3,940 (S1) targets $3,891 (S2) then $3,872 (S3)

About the author: I'm Aamir Iqbal, a market analyst. I publish the Daily Gold Trading Report, a professional daily XAU/USD report with exact intraday levels, annotated charts, and full macro coverage, at substack.

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