From Iran War To Israel Aid: How US Midterm Election Results Could Impact Gulf

(MENAFN- Khaleej Times) Millions of Americans are heading to the polls on Tuesday, November 3, in elections that will determine which party controls Congress and how much influence President Donald Trump will have over the country's political agenda for the next two years.

Although the presidency is not up for election, control of Congress is at stake. The results will determine whether Trump can rely on lawmakers to advance his agenda or face greater resistance from his political opponents.

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The implications, however, will extend beyond America's borders. Countries across the Middle East will be watching closely, as the outcome could influence Washington's foreign policy towards the region, including its approach to Iran and Israel.

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So, what are the US midterm elections, what are Americans voting for, and how could the results shape Washington's policy in the Middle East?

What are the US midterm elections?

Held every two years, US midterm elections take place halfway through a president's four-year term, giving voters the opportunity to decide which party will control Congress. Unlike presidential elections, they do not determine who occupies the White House, but they can significantly influence how the president governs for the remainder of the term.

How does the US Congress work?

The US Congress consists of two chambers: the House of Representatives and the Senate. Both are involved in passing legislation, but they have different rules and powers, and their seats are contested differently during midterm elections.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election on November 3. A party needs at least 218 seats to secure a majority and control the chamber. Democrats need to gain a net of three seats to take control from Republicans, who currently hold a narrow majority.

The Senate race is different. Only 35 of its 100 seats are being contested this year, including two special elections. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, while Democrats have 47, including two independent senators who caucus with them. Democrats therefore need a net gain of four seats to reach 51 and secure a majority.

Why does control of Congress matter?

Winning the House would give Democrats greater influence over legislation, congressional investigations and oversight of the Trump administration, even if Republicans retain control of the Senate.

Taking control of both chambers would give Democrats greater leverage over the president's agenda, allowing them to challenge proposed legislation, scrutinise his administration and influence decisions on domestic and foreign policy.

How could the results affect the Middle East?

Iran war

Trump did not seek congressional approval before launching the war with Iran on February 28. Democrats have since repeatedly backed resolutions calling for an end to the fighting unless he obtains authorisation from Congress.

One such resolution received support from a handful of Republicans but was not adopted.

If Democrats gain control of either chamber, they could use their influence over defence spending to pressure Trump to seek congressional authorisation for continuing the war.

They could also increase scrutiny of the administration's military strategy by requiring officials to testify publicly about its plans.

US military support to Israel

Support for Israel has become increasingly divisive among Democrats, particularly over its conduct of the Gaza war, which has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians.

Continued violence in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's close ties with Republicans have also contributed to growing divisions within the party.

If Democrats gain control of Congress, they could push for restrictions on or an end to US military assistance to Israel, which received $3.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year, more than any other country.

The issue has already exposed divisions among Democrats. Nearly half of House Democrats voted this summer in favour of cutting off aid to Israel. Others who opposed that effort, including Democratic Representative Gregory Meeks, have supported restricting the supply of certain weapons, such as heavy bombs.

However, a shift in congressional control would not automatically change Washington's approach to the region. The president retains significant authority over foreign affairs, while lawmakers can influence funding, oversight and the administration's ability to pursue certain policies.

When will the results be announced?

The first results are expected on Tuesday night, November 3, as polling stations begin closing at 6pm Eastern Time (3am UAE time on Wednesday, November 4).

There is no fixed deadline for declaring which party has won control of the House of Representatives or the Senate. While the outcome of many races may become clear overnight or on Wednesday, closely contested seats could leave control of either chamber undecided for days.

The 2024 elections offer a recent example, when it took eight days to determine which party would control the House of Representatives.

The time needed to count ballots varies by state, particularly for early and postal votes. Close races may also trigger recounts, while states such as Arizona, Nevada and California can take longer to report their final results, according to US media reports.

(With inputs by Salma El Omla)

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