Daily Gold Trading Report - Monday, November 2, 2026

(MENAFN- Investor Ideas) ), a leader in mining investing news and home of theExploring Mining Podcast, issues market commentary from Aamir Iqbal, a market analyst that publishes the Daily Gold Trading Report.

Gold fell 3.5% on Friday to a one year low, and this morning's bounce to $3,909 is a relief move inside a downtrend, not a reversal. Today's ISM manufacturing data decides whether the bounce extends toward $3,965 or fades back to $3,875.

Monday's session is open and gold is trading near $3,909, up about $33 from Friday's $3,875.65 close after Friday's 3.5% fall to a one year low. The 1-hour chart shows a steep fall into Friday, a flat weekend base near $3,890 to $3,895, and a sharp spike higher this morning that has so far stalled at the $3,915 session high.

The intraday map

The map for today is drawn from this morning's session and the week's structure. Resistance stacks at $4,037 (R3), the 30-minute window high from before Friday's plunge, then $3,965 (R2), the mid point of Friday's fall, and $3,915 (R1), this morning's session high. The pivot sits at $3,909, this morning's live spot at the TradingView capture. Below, $3,891 (S1) is this morning's session low, $3,875 (S2) is Friday's close, and $3,870 (S3) is Friday's intraday low, the lowest print in a year. The bias is Bearish: price is under its short-term averages and Friday's breakdown is intact. A sustained hourly close above $3,965 flips the bias to Neutral toward $4,037; a sustained break below $3,875 opens $3,870 and then lower ground.

1H

Advertisement

30m

Why the macro tape is heavy

The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, in a 10-2 decision, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favour of a 25 basis point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation has stayed above target for about six years and gave no guidance on the next meeting, and on Friday two Fed officials called for more hikes. The data backed the hawks: third-quarter GDP grew 3.4% at an annual rate, September personal consumption expenditures inflation rose 3.6% year on year with core at 3.1%, and September consumer prices rebounded to 3.7% year on year. Markets still price a December hike as the leading case, with the next decision due December 8 to 9, and that expectation is the main weight on gold this morning.

The 10-year Treasury yield finished last week at 4.93%, down 7 basis points on the week but still just under the 5.00% threshold, after touching 5.36% at its 52-week high. Holding non-yielding gold while the 10-year pays close to 5% still carries a real opportunity cost, and that is why rallies keep meeting sellers. The dollar index finished the week flat at 101.9, firm enough to add a second headwind for gold buyers in other currencies. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan both held last week, and the Bank of Canada hiked, a week of five central bank decisions that ended with the dollar firm and gold at a one year low.

Crude oil tells the other half of the story. Brent crude settled Friday at $117.64 a barrel, up 2.4% on the day and briefly touching $118, and West Texas Intermediate settled at $104.12, both six-month highs, after a tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday and the United States reiterated the possibility of renewed hostilities with Iran. October was the worst month on record for attacks on shipping in and around the Strait, Iran's navy said another tanker hit a mine there on Saturday, and the war with Iran has now entered its ninth month. Against that, United States Vice President JD Vance has reached out to Iran to restart peace talks, though Tehran is refusing to move until its conditions are met. The result is the same tug of war that defined Friday: war risk supports defensive demand, while higher oil feeds inflation expectations and the case for another Fed hike, which caps the safe-haven bid. On Friday the rate fear won, and gold fell even as oil surged.

What to watch today

Today's calendar is led by the United States ISM Manufacturing PMI for October at 10:00 AM Eastern (forecast 54.7, prior 54.5), construction spending, and a speech from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee. The week then builds fast: the midterm elections on Tuesday, private payrolls and services PMI on Wednesday, and the October jobs report on Friday.

Friday's verdict: gold fell 3.6% on the day to $3,875.53, down 3.1% on the week, as rate-hike fear beat safe-haven demand ISM manufacturing today: the prices component (forecast 77.5, prior 77.9) is the line to watch with oil above $100 Hormuz and Iran wire: Brent settled Friday at $117.64 after a tanker strike, with peace talks stalled on Tehran's conditions Bullish trigger: a sustained hourly close above $3,915 (R1) targets $3,965 (R2) then $4,037 (R3) Bearish trigger: a sustained break below $3,891 (S1) targets $3,875 (S2) then $3,870 (S3)

About the author: I'm Aamir Iqbal, a market analyst. I publish the Daily Gold Trading Report, a professional daily XAU/USD report with exact intraday levels, annotated charts, and full macro coverage, at substack.

Research mining stocks at the Investorideas free stock directory

at Investorideas with host Cali Van Zant for the latest mining stock news and insightful interviews with top industry experts

Axel Merk: What Warsh's Fed Approach Means for Gold, & Gold Stocks

MENAFN02112026000142011025ID1111904481