Empty Arsenal, Empty Threat: How To Fix America's Arms Deficit

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The consolidation promoted by the Pentagon created five very large defense companies who controlled most of the top defense systems, priced their output very high and were under no pressure to speed up production, save money, or worry about competition.

Foreign competitors were blocked. For example, the superior European Airbus refueling aircraft was scrapped in favor of a problematic and untested Boeing-proposed refueler. Even when the UK offered a STOL platform (Harrier), the US forced a redesign and US production, which jacked up costs considerably and delayed deliveries.

The same thing happened with the US now scrapped frigate program called FFG-(X). It was based on Europe's highly successful FREMM platform. Had the Navy not messed with it, stuffed it with incompatible US systems, and reengineered it when it didn't need it, the US Navy would have the new frigates at sea today.

In fact, it would have made good sense just to buy the ships ready-made from European shipyards. Unfortunately, US laws prohibit the use of foreign hulls. Beyond the failure to outsource, US government-controlled arsenals face serious manufacturing problems.

A good example is the Watervliet Arsenal in upstate New York. It was founded in 1813 and manufactures the gun tubes for 155mm guns and 120mm guns for US tanks. These gun tubes wear out fairly quickly, or warp, or both, which means they have to be replaced.

Watervliet can produce only 216 155mm gun tubes annually, far below the need. In Ukraine, fully one-third of its big guns are out of action mainly because of missing replacement gun tubes. Today, Watervliet has a $900 billion backlog. It takes the Arsenal four months to produce one tube.

Watervliet is a defense“untouchable,” so any idea of funding a competitor is a non-starter. Arsenal is government-owned and government-operated.

The search for a cheaper, faster way of doing things is just starting, but it will be years before any real reform. Despite the significant defensive failures in the Persian Gulf, where the US, with its most up-to-date air defense hardware, failed to protect military bases from Iran (and more recently from the Houthis), this suggests that even the US's best“solutions” don't work well enough.

Consider the Patriot, America's number one air defense system. It was first deployed in 1985 and, over the next 40-plus years, has been“evolved” in various ways. It was originally designed to shoot down enemy aircraft, like the I Hawk, which it replaced.

Improvements in Patriot include the most modern intercept missile, PAC-3, introduced in 1999, better radars and better integration with other systems, for example THAAD.

Today, PAC-3 interceptors are in very short supply. During a single five-week window at the height of the conflict in the Middle East earlier this year, US and allied coalition forces expended an estimated 1,700 Patriot missiles.

The current US reserve is estimated at 750 missiles. Lockheed Martin produces about 650 missiles each year, but there have been many delays, including on the radar seeker, which Boeing produces for the PAC-3 and PAC-3 MSE interceptors.

The Pentagon just authorized a sale of 500 Patriot missiles to Ukraine, but as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has noted, it will take years before they arrive.