Gold Rally Shows Markets Mispriced The Fed's Next Move
Gold's rally could signal that markets have fundamentally mispriced the Fed's next move, predicts the CEO of one of the world's largest independent financial advisory organisations.
Gold's first weekly gain in five weeks may ultimately be remembered as the moment investors began unwinding one of the market's biggest and most crowded theories of 2025: that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.
The analysis of Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, is based around his belief that markets have become overly confident that restrictive monetary policy will remain in place well into next year.
Spot gold rose 1.4% on Friday and was on track for a 2.3% weekly gain after weaker-than-expected US jobs data prompted investors to scale back expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening.
According to the latest figures, the US economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, significantly below forecasts and sharply lower than previous months, fuelling fresh questions about the strength of the world's largest economy.
AdvertisementGold has suffered heavily this year as investors embraced the 'higher-for-longer' narrative.
The precious metal posted its worst quarterly performance in 13 years in the three months to June and remains around 22% below the record highs reached in January.
But the deVere CEO argues that the very severity of gold's decline has created the conditions for a potentially dramatic reversal.
He believes investors are underestimating the speed with which market expectations can shift once confidence in a dominant narrative starts to break.
The deVere CEO says the implications extend far beyond precious metals.
He concludes:
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