Tuesday, 02 January 2024 12:17 GMT

Ultra-Wealthy Line Up Major Portfolio Shifts As Iran Shock Drives Global Reset


Date:

(MENAFN- Investor Ideas) (Investorideas Newswire) a go-to platform for big investing ideas, including AI and tech stocks, issues market commentary from deVere Group.

Ultra-high-net-worth families are seeking to rebalance up to 15–20% of their portfolios as the Iran conflict disrupts energy markets and accelerates a broader realignment of the global economic system, according to wealth managers.

Demand for family office structures is rising sharply globally as clients move to execute complex, cross-border changes.

The deVere Group

The move reflects a sharp escalation in both cyclical and structural risks. Oil prices above $100, following the removal of roughly 10 million barrels per day of supply through the Strait of Hormuz, are feeding directly into inflation expectations and currency volatility.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described the disruption as the largest oil supply shock in modern history, underscoring the scale of the impact.

At the same time, a new global economic order is taking shape. Globalization is reversing into regional trade blocs, with the US, China, and aligned economies increasingly operating in parallel systems.

Supply chains are being re-engineered through near-shoring and friend-shoring, prioritizing security over cost.

Industrial policy is expanding rapidly, with governments directing capital into energy, defense, semiconductors, and AI and tech.

Sanctions regimes are widening, capital controls are tightening in parts of the world, and cross-border investment is becoming more politically conditional.

Elevated sovereign debt levels are limiting fiscal flexibility, while currency markets are becoming more sensitive to geopolitical alignment, including growing questions around long-term dollar dominance.

Demand for defensive positioning has increased rapidly. The deVere Family Office reports a sharp rise in planned allocations to energy, commodities, and inflation-linked instruments, alongside a significant increase in currency hedging activity.

The scale and complexity of the shift are driving increased reliance on family office capabilities, particularly for clients with multi-jurisdictional exposure.

deVere reports a growing pipeline of restructuring activity, including trust reconfiguration, holding company adjustments and jurisdictional rebalancing.

The repositioning reflects a dual dynamic: an immediate energy shock and a deeper shift in the global economic model.

The disruption to oil supply is reinforcing inflation risks and weighing on growth expectations, while a more fragmented system-characterised by competing trade blocs, restricted capital flows, strategic resource competition and state-led industrial policy-is redefining how capital moves.

Capital is increasingly being directed toward jurisdictions offering legal certainty, liquidity, and political stability while maintaining multi-jurisdictional frameworks to preserve flexibility and access across blocs.

Investment focus is also shifting toward sectors positioned to benefit from structural change.

Energy infrastructure, logistics, and supply chain assets are attracting sustained interest, alongside AI and tech platforms supporting regional production and automation. Private credit demand in these areas is rising as traditional financing tightens.

The shift is also accelerating succession and governance planning, with families bringing forward decisions to ensure wealth remains protected and transferable across generations.

The firm also reiterates the principle underpinning its Family Office division.

Wealth managers expect the trend to continue as geopolitical risks remain elevated, and the global system becomes more complex.

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