Daily Gold Trading Report - Friday, October 30, 2026

(MENAFN- Investor Ideas) ), a leader in mining investing news and home of theExploring Mining Podcast, issues market commentary from Aamir Iqbal, a market analyst that publishes the Daily Gold Trading Report.

Gold has given the $4,034 breakout back after Thursday's hot US growth and inflation data, and today's wage-cost figures decide whether $4,000 holds or $3,975 comes into view.

Friday's session is open and gold is trading near $4,008, after dipping under $4,000 in the early hours and recovering back above the handle. Thursday's strong US growth and inflation data broke the $4,034 breakout that had held since October 28, and the question today is whether $4,000 holds into the US wage-cost data, or gives way toward last week's low.

The intraday map

The map for today is drawn from this morning's session and the week's structure. Resistance stacks at $4,069 (R3), Thursday's high, then $4,034 (R2), the old breakout level now overhead, and $4,024 (R1), Thursday's traded level. The pivot sits at $4,008, this morning's live spot at the TradingView capture. Below, $4,000 (S1) is the round-number handle, dipped under and reclaimed this morning, $3,975 (S2) is last week's low, and $3,950 (S3) is a round-number extension below the visible range. The bias is Bearish: price is under its short-term averages and each bounce has sold into a lower high. A sustained hourly close back above $4,034 flips the bias to Neutral toward $4,069; a sustained break below $4,000 opens $3,975 and then $3,950.

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Why the macro tape is heavy

The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, in a 10-2 decision, with two dissents in favour of a rate hike. Chair Kevin Warsh gave little forward guidance at the press conference, and Thursday's data did the hawkish work for him: third-quarter GDP grew 3.4% at an annual rate, above the 3.2% forecast, core personal consumption expenditures inflation edged up to 3.1% from 3.0%, and weekly jobless claims cooled to 194,000 from 195,000. Markets now price roughly an 83% chance of a December hike, according to CME FedWatch readings reported on Thursday, and that expectation is the main weight on gold this morning.

The 10-year Treasury yield slipped just under the 5.00% threshold on Thursday, to about 4.97%, after touching 5.04% around the Fed decision. Even just under 5.00%, holding non-yielding gold still carries a real opportunity cost, and every rally this week has met sellers while yields stay pinned near this level. The dollar index is near 102, close to a two-week high, which adds a second headwind: a firm dollar makes gold dearer for buyers in other currencies. The European Central Bank held its deposit rate at 2.50% on Thursday, and President Christine Lagarde said she will step down on February 7, 2027.

Crude oil tells the other half of the story. Brent crude trades near $115 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate near $102, after Brent settled at $114.88 on Thursday. The premium is still in place: the Wall Street Journal reported the United States notified Gulf countries to prepare for a short, intense military operation against Iran, with a decision not yet made and an attack leaning toward after the November 3 midterm elections, while Iranian state media reported an oil tanker struck a mine in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday morning. Against that, Qatar and Pakistan are leading mediation efforts, Iran's foreign minister kept a diplomatic solution open, and the World Bank warned commodity prices will jump 23% this year on the Middle East war's disruption of energy supplies. The result is a tug of war for gold: war risk supports defensive demand, while higher oil feeds inflation expectations and the case for another Fed hike, which caps the safe-haven bid.

What to watch today

Today's calendar is led by the Bank of Japan decision overnight, euro area third-quarter GDP, the US Employment Cost Index for the third quarter in the US morning session, and the Chicago purchasing managers' index for October.

Thursday's data: Q3 GDP grew 3.4%, above the 3.2% forecast, and core inflation edged up to 3.1%, hardening the December hike case Employment Cost Index today: the wage-cost print that moves the December hike bet, with a soft print helping gold Hormuz and Iran wire: a reported tanker mine strike and a possible US operation keep the oil premium in place despite mediation Bullish trigger: a sustained hourly close above $4,024 (R1) targets $4,034 (R2) then $4,069 (R3) Bearish trigger: a sustained break below $4,000 (S1) targets $3,975 (S2) then $3,950 (S3)

About the author: I'm Aamir Iqbal, a market analyst. I publish the Daily Gold Trading Report, a professional daily XAU/USD report with exact intraday levels, annotated charts, and full macro coverage, at substack.

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