CEE & CCA Week Ahead: Central Bank Meetings In Poland, Czech Republic And CCA

(MENAFN- ING) Poland: NBP expected to keep rates unchanged

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday. Headline inflation has been running above the NBP's target of 2.5% +/- 1 percentage point in recent months. However, with little evidence of broader price pressures building, the Monetary Policy Council still appears to have time before it needs to respond.

The key factor at the November meeting will be the central bank staff's new macroeconomic projection. If it points to inflation remaining elevated and above target at the turn of 2027/28, this could prompt a more hawkish policy bias. The next important development will be the electricity and gas tariffs taking effect from the beginning of 2027, which are due to be announced in mid-December. Significant price increases could set a higher starting point for the inflation path ahead.

Still, our baseline scenario assumes that NBP rates would remain unchanged through the end of this year. Rate hikes are possible in 1Q27, with two 25bp increases, assuming the energy crisis continues and inflation remains elevated.

Hungary: Industrial output and retail sales data ahead

September industrial output data is released on Wednesday, while Friday brings September retail sales data. Some payback looks likely in industrial production after two consecutive months of strong growth, but this should not derail the generally positive trend. Growth remains concentrated among manufacturers bringing new capacities online.

Meanwhile, after the surprisingly weak August reading, retail sales should regain momentum in September, with food and non-food sales recovering, partly offset by the drag from rising fuel prices.

Czech Republic: CNB expected to raise rates by 25bp

The CNB is expected to raise rates by 25bp to 4.00% on Thursday as inflation pressures continue to build. Headline and core inflation have exceeded the central bank's forecasts, while higher energy and food prices and accelerating wages point to further upside risks. The CNB's new forecast should reflect substantially higher assumptions for oil, gas and eurozone inflation, alongside stronger public-sector and minimum-wage growth. We expect GDP growth of 1.8% this year and 2.3% in 2027, below the CNB's current projections.

At the same time, inflation is expected to accelerate to 3.9% in 1Q27 and average 3.4% next year, driven by food prices, energy costs and regulated-price adjustments. The combination of persistent inflation pressures and robust consumption should keep further monetary tightening on the agenda, with the December and February meetings potentially in play depending on incoming inflation data.

Turkey: Monthly inflation expected to rise on energy pressures

Tuesday brings October CPI data. We expect monthly inflation of 2.4%, driven by higher energy pressures, which the CBT has highlighted as an upside risk, as well as seasonal increases in food and clothing prices. This would bring annual inflation down slightly, from 29.7% in September to 29.6%.

CCA: Armenia and Uzbekistan central banks expected to stay on hold

We expect the Central Bank of Armenia to keep its policy rate unchanged at 6.75% next Tuesday. The case against another hike is underpinned by the moderation in headline inflation to 4.3% YoY in September from 4.4% in August, alongside the continued strength of the dram.

Still, inflation remains above the CBA's 3% target, while Armenia's exposure to external risks amid a relatively low real rate means that a further nominal rate hike cannot be ruled out over the medium term. We therefore expect the CBA to maintain cautious guidance, keeping the door open to renewed tightening should inflationary pressures strengthen.

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan postponed its 28 October meeting to 4 November to incorporate updated 3Q data into its forecasts. Historically, such delays have not signalled an imminent policy move, with the previous postponements in 2024 and 2025 eventually followed by holds. Little has changed since last week's preview, and we continue to expect the policy rate to remain at 14.00% as a base-case scenario.

The main update is 9M26 GDP growth of 8.3% YoY, pointing to some cooling in 3Q from 8.5% in 1H26. Meanwhile, the recent modest weakening of the soum suggests the pause in gold exports may have extended, reinforcing our expectations of renewal of FX support in the near to medium term.

Key events in CEE & CCA next week Source: Refinitiv, ING

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