Did Takaichi Make A Bad Bet On Donald Trump?

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The former senior official predicts that a weaker and more isolated Trump“will also become increasingly authoritarian and of the view that he and Xi (Jinping) and Putin should rule the world.”

Daalder believes that a trilateral summit with Putin and Xi on the sidelines of the November APEC summit in Shenzhen, proposed by the Russian leader, is highly likely. That summit could be focused on trying to impose upon Ukraine a surrender on Russian terms, but Trump may just settle for the image of the three great leaders arm in arm.

“Trump needs to project power – and that increases the likelihood of him doing unhinged things,” says Daalder.

Escalation in the Iran war

The greatest challenge facing Trump after the elections – and maybe even before the vote – is how to get out of the quagmire of the Iran war. Trump is incapable of admitting making any mistake so his goal has been to find a way to declare victory and go home. But, says Daalder, the price of victory has gone up from some months ago when a deal with Teheran was at hand.

“Now it becomes more difficult,” argues the former US envoy to NATO. Trump is likely to carry out a big military strike, presumably at the buried Iranian nuclear site at Pickaxe Mountain or the oil terminal on Kharg Island.“Trump may use a tactical nuclear weapon on either or both,” Daalder worries.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has openly called for a resumption of large-scale attacks, aimed at toppling the Iranian regime, after the US election.

Escalation against Iran will trigger a widening retaliation against the Gulf states, further undermining global oil and gas markets and disrupting supply chains for chemicals and fertilizers. For Japan, this is a serious threat to economic growth plans, but Trump may not care about the broad economic crisis this could trigger.

After declaring“victory” Trump can then focus on the Western hemisphere, with an attempt to seize power in Cuba high on his list of targets, the former envoy to NATO predicts.“Even Greenland is not over,” he believes.

A summit with Kim Jong Un?

Another nightmare for Japan after a midterm defeat may be the increased prospect of a Trump summit with North Korea's Kim Jong Un. Recent remarks by Trump, however, seemed to dampen the prospects of a meeting and Kim has little incentive to meet with him, most North Korea watchers believe. Recognition of North Korea's nuclear status is no longer sufficient reason to hold a meeting.

“Trump has nothing he wants, other than the US leaving South Korea,” a former senior State Department official told this writer. It is possible, the official says, that the Chinese and Russians may urge Trump in Shenzhen to seek a meeting with Kim to declare an end to the Korean war and begin to remove US forces from South Korea.“If I were Kim, I would get Putin to carry his water on this and declare it a victory for peace,” the former official speculates.“I can see Trump falling for that.”

China bargain

Takaichi and senior Japanese officials are already alarmed by the prospect for a“grand bargain” between Trump and the Chinese leader that could leave Japan effectively isolated. That bullet was mostly dodged when Xi visited Washington but the two leaders are planning to meet twice after the midterm elections – at the APEC summit in Shenzhen and then at a G20 summit held at a Trump golf resort in Florida.

As is increasingly clear, Trump's anti-Chinese posture is mostly a performance for his voter base. Steps to engage in a full-scale trade war, and to seriously restrict the flow of high technology to China, have largely been abandoned. US defenses in the Western Pacific have been drawn down, even before the Iran war. After the elections, there may be little to stop Trump from seeking to cement an axis with China.

“Trump is also a little scared of President Xi and wants his approval,” Phillips O'Brien, a prolific analyst and professor of strategy at Britain's St Andrews University, wrote recently.“In the end, Trump would be happy to see the Chinese dominate East Asia, especially if he can profit from it.”

Can Congress stop Trump?

Japanese officials may hope that a weakened Trump will face greater resistance after the election from the Congress, not only from victorious Democrats but also from Republicans who see him as a political liability heading toward the 2028 presidential election. But some observers argue that Trump will simply go deeper down the road of political retaliation and dismissal of Congressional authority.