The Mecca Pact Goes To Tehran. Can It Keep The Region Out Of Another War?

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In Washington, Donald Trump said on October 23 that the US may do“another little Epic Fury,” his military's name for the war that began in February. Earlier this month he said there would be no attack before the midterms. Now the Wall Street Journal reports that Washington has told Gulf states to prepare for a short, intense campaign after November 3. Trump has not made a final decision, but he is reportedly leaning toward a large operation, with a negotiated deal as the alternative.

Gulf states would absorb the consequences. Iran has warned it would strike economic and civilian targets across the region, as it did earlier in the war.

Deterrence and diplomacy are not opposites

Some will call it contradictory that a defense pact is courting Iran. There's no real contradicion. Alliances routinely show they can defend themselves and then show they would rather not have to.

The sequence fits. On October 5, the pact's committee met in Riyadh after attacks on Saudi Arabia and moved toward implementing collective defense. Three weeks later its members were in Tehran, a day after Qatari mediators had been there. Riyadh says the visit supports the mediation led by Qatar and Pakistan.

The pact also has a built-in brake. Turkey's foreign affairs committee chair says the collective-defense clause would not automatically trigger military action, and any Turkish deployment would need separate parliamentary approval. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has said the alliance is not directed against Iran. That is why Tehran can talk to it at all.

Where it can fail

The Houthi front. If attacks on Saudi Arabia continue, Riyadh's patience and the pact's commitments will be tested, and the diplomacy will look like cover.

Competing readings. After the meeting, Rezaei said regional security should be homegrown, with foreign intervention prevented. Tehran will want that treated as a shared position. Washington, and NATO-member Turkey's own politics, may read it very differently.

Ratification. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have completed theirs. Turkey's full assembly has not voted, and its opposition warns the pact could drag Ankara into others' wars. A bloc with a member still ratifying has less weight in Tehran.

Hormuz. Ship attacks in the strait hit a record in October, according to Reuters. A fresh round of strikes would make that worse, and energy importers across Asia – Pakistan included – would pay for it.

What the pact could do now

First, make Houthi de-escalation the opening ask. Request a time-limited halt to attacks on Saudi infrastructure, paired with a reciprocal step that Riyadh is willing to take.

Second, work as one channel with Qatar and Pakistan rather than as a rival one.