Israel's Inconclusive Election Reveals A Sharply Divided Nation

Turnout reached 77.7%, the highest since 1999 and seven points higher than in 2022. Whatever else this election was, it was not an apathetic one.

The sharpest rise came among Arab citizens, roughly a fifth of the population, where turnout was put at about 80%. Exit polls gave Ra'am and the Joint List a combined 17 to 19 seats, which would be their strongest showing ever; the partial count has them at 15.

That surge is the hinge of the whole result. It is the main reason Netanyahu's bloc sits short of a majority. Yet it doesn't hand one to Eisenkot either, because two of his own partners have ruled out relying on Arab parties.

The campaign's final day showed how charged this is. Netanyahu warned supporters about heavy Arab turnout; Arab party leaders called that incitement meant to frighten right-wing voters to the polls. Ra'am's Mansour Abbas, in turn, credited the record vote to resentment of the outgoing government.

On today's numbers, every route to a government requires someone to break a campaign promise.

A Netanyahu government. The coalition needs five more seats. The obvious candidates are hard to reach: Liberman has refused to serve under Netanyahu or alongside the ultra-Orthodox parties, and Bennett told supporters last night that Netanyahu had lost. A late shift in the count is Netanyahu's simplest path.

An Eisenkot government. The opposition parties together are well short of 61. A majority exists only if Arab parties are counted in, and Bennett and Liberman reject that. Eisenkot himself has said partners must accept Israel as a Jewish state and the dismantling of Hamas, terms most Arab lawmakers are unlikely to accept. A minority government with outside Arab support has been floated inside his camp, but his allies oppose it.

A unity government. Likud and Yashar together would clear 61 comfortably. TIME reported before the vote that Netanyahu would prefer such a deal, and Liberman has accused Eisenkot of seeking one. For Eisenkot, it would mean propping up the leader he campaigned to replace.

Another election. If no one can form a government, Israel returns to the polls, with Netanyahu staying on as caretaker prime minister. After five elections between 2019 and 2022, few Israelis would welcome a sixth round so soon, but it is a live possibility.

This was the first national vote since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, and it was widely framed as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership through it and the wars that followed in Gaza, Lebanon and against Iran.

The two camps read that record very differently. Netanyahu's supporters see a wartime leader who struck Israel's enemies hard and kept close ties with Washington. His opponents blame him for the failures that preceded October 7 and for the divisions of the years since, from judicial reform to the ultra-Orthodox draft dispute that helped bring this government down.

Notably, the main challengers did not run as a left. Eisenkot, Bennett and Liberman are security hawks; the contest was as much about trust and governance as about policy toward the Palestinians.