Why Lula's 'Miracle' Win Matters Well Beyond Brazil

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Lula's victory matters well beyond Brazil's borders in three ways. Globally, Brazil remains a bulwark against the rise of the far right. In recent elections across Latin America and Europe, far-right parties and leaders have advanced almost everywhere.

Brazil, the world's fourth-largest democracy, has now bucked the trend, and is a symbol that democrats elsewhere will not ignore.

Regionally, Lula has defied the so-called“incumbent curse.” Over the past decade in Latin America, governing parties have lost election after election, punished by voters for inflation, insecurity and economic stagnation.

Brazil's economy was in reasonable shape, but its gains were modest and unevenly felt. Everything pointed to a defeat, and Lula beat the odds anyway.

His win is also a check on what critics have called the“Donroe Doctrine”, referring to the Trump administration's push to bring the Western Hemisphere more firmly into the US sphere of influence through tariffs, threats and political patronage.

Bolsonaro had campaigned as Washington's preferred partner in South America. Brazil's voters turned that offer down.

Domestically, the result also shows the power of popular mobilization on the left. After Lula's poor first-round showing, his campaign re-energized demoralizzed supporters and built a broad coalition of voters, some of whom were voting less for Lula than against what Bolsonaro represents. It also mobilised people who had stayed home in the first round to get out to vote.

Battle just beginning

Lula should not mistake survival for vindication. Yes, he corrected course. In three weeks, he acknowledged the mistakes he made over four years in office, especially during a lackluster first-round campaign.

He sharpened his message, widened his alliances and spoke directly to the voters he had lost. That is no small achievement for a politician, however experienced he may be.

But he now has to govern a country more polarized than ever. Political violence on the streets has increased, and hate speech circulates freely online.

Prominent figures on the far right, including Nikolas Ferreira and Lucas Pavanato, have already said they will not accept this election result. Bolsonaro said late Sunday he will not concede, and will seek an annulment of the vote.

And then there is Washington. Given the White House's close ties to the Bolsonaro family, there is a real risk the Trump administration will question, or even refuse to recognise, the outcome of the election. That would be extraordinary, and a few years ago, it would have been unthinkable.

Things are further complicated by a legal battle on election day itself. After allegations of voter suppression of Lula's supporters in several cities, the justices of Brazil's Supreme Court and the Supreme Electoral Court clashed over whether to extend voting hours.

Whatever the legal merits, the dispute gives the losing side a ready-made narrative of“voting irregularities.” This could be a matter of serious concern, and it may last for weeks.

Three key questions

When Lula is inaugurated on January 5, three questions will define his fourth term.

The first is how Lula will govern a deeply divided country with a conservative majority in Congress and over a dozen right-wing state governors.

The legislature that held him hostage over the past four years has grown more hostile, not less. Every budget, every reform and every appointment will be a tough negotiation, with the possibility of an impeachment hanging over Lula's head.