Why The Middle East Is Already Waiting Out Trump's Presidency

Analysts have noted that a Republican defeat could strengthen this incentive, as a president with little left to lose at the ballot box faces fewer costs for escalation. Yet such strikes would do little damage control, since a Politico survey found 46% of voters said ending the war before the election would not change their vote at all.

Iran has meanwhile fortified its nuclear sites and warned that regional energy infrastructure would be targeted, so any parting blow risks sending oil prices even higher. The president's own inner circle appears to have read the same numbers and is quietly positioning itself for the aftermath.

US Vice President JD Vance, reportedly skeptical from the outset, has kept his distance and this week declined to endorse Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of Israel's election. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, his chief rival for 2028, spent the same week in India on a trip devoted largely to trade rather than Iran.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, by contrast, made an unannounced visit to Israel a day after Trump endorsed Netanyahu, keeping himself firmly in the frame. Commentators suggested as early as April that Hegseth was being set up as the fall guy should the war end badly. His visibility since has only reinforced that impression.

The Gulf states have reached the same conclusion. They are hedging accordingly against an American policy they no longer trust to last. The UAE joined the campaign against Iran in February, yet they opened a back channel with Iranians lately after the realization that it is better to deal directly instead of relying on the US.

Moreover, the UAE, by virtue of being in support of the Saudis vis-a-vis Yemen, is trying to find a diplomatic way to lower tensions. It signals a striking reversal in barely eight months. Having absorbed thousands of Iranian missiles and drones, Abu Dhabi appears to be securing its own understandings before Washington's next round begins.

Yemen shows how the burden is being shifted, since the United States has twice rebuffed Saudi requests for airstrikes against the Houthis and says it will not take kinetic action for now.

Instead, the UAE has reportedly agreed to resume funding anti-Houthi forces in southern Yemen. This arrangement lets Washington stay out while a partner carries the fight on its behalf.

Iran's strategy rests on patience, and its leaders appear confident they can absorb another year or so of American pressure before the political weather in Washington changes. Its posture towards Saudi Arabia fits this reading more closely than the images of burning airports suggest.

Houthi strikes have killed at least 19 people at Saudi airports, and the Wall Street Journal has reported Revolutionary Guard officers helping to direct them. Yet within days of the deadliest attack, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called Riyadh to offer mediation with the Houthis and insist the crisis had no military solution.