'Big Short' Investor Michael Burry Bumps Up Substack Subscription Price, Flags 4 'Busted' Bear-Market Havens

(MENAFN- AsiaNet News)

• Cassandra Unchained's monthly price rises from $49 to $69 and its annual fee from $479 to $679 on Nov.1.
• The revenue estimate is about 9.6 times the $24.2 million YTD gain from investing $1 million in each of the S & P 500's 10 top-performing stocks.
• Burry highlighted Adobe, Fiserv, Birkenstock and QXO as potential bear-market havens, with the first three outperforming SPY, QQQ and DIA on Thursday.

“The Big Short” investor Michael Burry's growing Substack audience and upcoming fee increases could lift its annual revenue potential above $232 million - more than double July's levels - as he turned the spotlight on four“busted” stocks that could offer shelter in a prolonged bear market.

The investor highlighted Adobe (ADBE), Fiserv (FISV), Birkenstock (BIRK) and QXO as pockets of strength during Thursday's technology selloff, while separately flagging a possible accounting risk for Nvidia (NVDA). 

Burry Raises Rates As His Audience Tops 342,000

Burry said Cassandra Unchained's monthly subscription would rise from $49 to $69, while the annual fee would increase from $479 to $679. The changes take effect from Nov.1, implying increases of over 40% in both time periods.“Subscribe before the end of the month, and you will keep the lower rate for the life of your subscription,” he said on X. 

His official subscription page now shows more than 342,000 subscribers, compared with 300,044 in July, marking growth of about 14%. At $679 per annual subscription, 342,000 subscriptions would generate $232.2 million in annual gross revenue, which is about 104% above July's $113.7 million estimate by Stocktwits, which used 300,044 subscribers and a $379 annual fee. 

However, the $232.2 million figure comes with a catch: it assumes every subscriber pays the new annual fee. Burry's audience includes free readers, while existing subscribers can keep lower rates. His actual revenue and paid-subscriber count are currently undisclosed.

How $232M Stacks Up Against Wall Street's Biggest Winners

Even picking the S & P 500's 10 biggest winners this year would deliver gains far below l $232.2 million. Investing $1 million in each would turn $10 million into about $34.2 million, a $24.2 million gain, with the newsletter figure about 9.6 times higher.

S & P 500 Ticker	YTD Total Return	Value Of $1M Invested
MRNA	587%	$6.9M
SNDK	431%	$5.3M
DELL	264%	$3.6M
MU	200%	$3M
MPC	186%	$2.9M
VLO	166%	$2.7M
MRVL	163%	$2.6M
BE	151%	$2.5M
AMD	137%	$2.4M
STX	134%	$2.3M

Burry's Four 'Busted' Picks Rise As Tech Sinks

Burry's picks stood out on Thursday as the SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell 1.2% and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) dropped 2.9%, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) edged up 0.04%. Adobe rallied 6.1%, Fiserv gained 5.4% and Birkenstock advanced 4.2%, comfortably outperforming all three benchmarks.

“In a severe or elongated bear, busted stocks can be a haven. ADBE, FISV, BIRK, QXO perking up as the NDX nearly touches 900 points down,” Burry said in a Substack chat.

Burry's research had earlier examined whether stocks that had already suffered steep losses could outperform market leaders once a downturn began. In last week's post, he compared leading stocks with those trading at least 20% below their 10-year highs when the broader market peaked. After the March 2000 peak, leaders lost about 33% over the next year and 50% over 18 months. By contrast, the median beaten-down stock was up 14% after one year and 8% after 18 months. 

Burry Sees Accounting Risk For Nvidia

Burry also flagged a proposal from the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) as a potential threat to Nvidia's reported revenue.“Also, FASB has a new rule coming that would conceivably force NVDA to deduct circular revenue from its reported revenue - could be big,” he said.

The proposal would clarify when payments made on behalf of customers, or to customers of a company's customers, fall under revenue-recognition rules governing customer payments. Such payments generally reduce revenue unless they purchase a distinct good or service. The proposal remains open for comment until Nov.23. 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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