Azerbaijan's External Position To Improve Faster In 2026 - IMF
“Among CCA oil exporters, external positions in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are expected to improve more rapidly in 2026 than projected in April, supported by higher oil revenues, before weakening from 2027 as energy prices ease,” says the October edition of the Regional Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia issued by IMF on October 22.
The financial institution notes that among oil exporters, both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan recorded stronger trade balances.
“Changes in international reserves have been mixed, but countries with the largest reserve declines since the start of the conflict generally entered the shock with comfortable reserve positions, with Bahrain as a notable exception,” reads the report.
The authors of the report point out that Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are expected to continue consolidating in 2026, with consolidation extending beyond 2026 in Azerbaijan.
“Economic activity has remained robust across much of the CCA in 2026. Limited direct exposure to the Middle East conflict, together with strong domestic demand, remittances, and trade and transit flows, has supported activity. Disruptions to trade through Iran and Russia have nevertheless required costly rerouting and adjustments to logistics networks. GDP growth slowed in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan - the latter reflecting disruptions to oil production,” the report says.
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