China Next-Gen Solar Tech Curb To Impact Spacex AI Computing Plan

The spokesperson described the revision as a routine update to China's catalog of technologies prohibited or restricted from export, which the two ministries have adjusted periodically since 2001. He added that it does not target any specific country, region or entity.

He said most AI and biotech activity would not be affected, adding that offering AI models to overseas users through application programming interfaces (APIs), apps, websites, software-as-a-service (SaaS) or lightweight on-device versions would not count as an export.

Downloading an open-source Chinese model to run on computers outside China would not be affected, but a Chinese firm would need a license to install a controlled model on an overseas client's servers.

The proposal follows a September 21 agreement in New York between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to notify each other of AI incidents that could threaten national security, with Bessent citing non-state actors in cyberattacks and bioweapons as examples.

Musk announced the 100-gigawatt plan on a Tesla earnings call in late January, saying the company would cover the entire supply chain from raw materials to finished solar panels. Days later, he sent a team to visit Chinese solar firms involved in equipment, silicon wafers, cell modules and perovskite technology. GCL Group confirmed the visit, while JinkoSolar said it had signed no agreements.

In early February, SpaceX acquired Musk's AI firm xAI. The trillionaire said space would become the cheapest place to generate AI computing within two to three years, using satellites with near-constant solar power. On February 8, Musk wrote on X that SpaceX's overriding priority was a Moon city, possibly achievable in under 10 years.

In March, Reuters reported that Tesla was in talks to buy about US$2.9 billion of Chinese solar manufacturing equipment, some of it needing Chinese export approval.

Citing an industry expert, the 21st Century Business Herald, a state-owned newspaper, said on October 17 that China would allow foreign firms to buy its perovskite cells, but not the related manufacturing equipment.

“Space photovoltaics is the core energy source for strategic industries such as commercial spaceflight, space stations, space computing and deep-space exploration. It serves both civilian and defense needs and bears on the security of China's space energy strategy,” Zhao Lei, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Institute of Electrical Engineering and director of its solar cell technology research department, told the newspaper.

“Western countries have long imposed a technology blockade on China in traditional multi-junction III-V compound space solar cells (costly gallium arsenide-based satellite cells), tightly controlling exports of high-performance epitaxy equipment to hold back our space solar development through an equipment gap,” he said.“The situation has now changed.”

The restrictions date back to 1989, when the US imposed an arms embargo on China after the Tiananmen crackdown. The embargo barred exports of defense items and space technology to China, including III-V space solar cells controlled under the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR).

Zhao said that while China has been shut out of III-V cell technology, it leads in the two cheaper routes, crystalline silicon cells and perovskite cells, including tandem designs, and has the world's most complete solar supply chain, making space solar one of the few high-end sectors where it is strong from end to end.

He said export controls would let China keep selling its products abroad while stopping foreign firms from using its best production equipment to quickly build their own factories and win orders from Chinese suppliers.

In other words, Musk could still use perovskite cells in his satellites, but he would need to buy them from China instead of producing them in the US.

Chinese firms held 96% of global polysilicon capacity and 91.3% of solar cell capacity at the end of 2025, according to the newspaper.