Opinion Writers Question Whether Israeli Elections Can Change The Course Of The Conflict

(MENAFN- Amman Net) Opinion articles published in Jordanian and Arab media have examined developments in Israel's political landscape ahead of the Knesset elections scheduled for October 27, focusing on their potential implications for Jordan, the future of the Palestinian cause and the prospects for a two-state solution. The debate comes amid the growing influence of Israel's right wing and declining confidence in the possibility of peaceful coexistence between Israelis and Palestinians.

The articles focus on three main issues: Jordan's strategic calculations regarding the Israeli elections, the diminishing prospects for a two-state solution, and the limits of relying on a change in Israel's leadership to halt war, settlement expansion and forced displacement.

Israeli Elections and Jordan's Concerns

An article titled Is Jordan Concerned About the Israeli Elections? examines the potential consequences of the Knesset elections for Jordan's national interests. It argues that Amman is less concerned with which party wins than with the composition of the next government, its political programme and its positions on the occupied West Bank and Jerusalem.

The article contends that the growing influence of the Israeli far right within political parties and the country's security and military institutions is narrowing the differences between Benjamin Netanyahu and his rivals. A change of prime minister, therefore, may not be enough on its own to alter Israeli policies towards Jordan and the Palestinians.

The article outlines two scenarios that could heighten Jordan's concerns. The first is a military confrontation with Iran before the elections, potentially triggering a prolonged regional war or giving Netanyahu an electoral advantage if the conflict ends quickly in Israel's favour. The second is that the elections proceed without a war, while the prospect remains that hardline right-wing forces will lead the next government.

It warns that the post-election period could bring further escalation on issues directly affecting Jordan's national security, particularly plans to displace Palestinians from the West Bank, attempts to push Jordan into assuming security and administrative responsibilities in parts of the territory, and potential challenges to Jordan's custodianship of Muslim and Christian holy sites in Jerusalem.

The writer places these developments within a broader regional analysis, arguing that the spread of conflict across the Middle East could weaken Israel's neighbours, increase pressure on Jordan and make the election results a significant factor in regional security and stability.

Alaa Al-Din Abu Zina: Declining Confidence in the Two-State Solution

In his article The Two-State Solution and the Impossibility of Coexistence (Part One), writer Alaa Al-Din Abu Zina examines the declining belief in the possibility of peaceful coexistence between Israelis and Palestinians, drawing on a survey published by the Pew Research Center on September 15, 2026.

According to Abu Zina, only 17 per cent of Israelis and 21 per cent of Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem believe that Israel and an independent Palestinian state can coexist peacefully. By contrast, 56 per cent of Israelis and 68 per cent of Palestinians consider peaceful coexistence impossible.

The writer places particular emphasis on the reasons respondents gave for their views, arguing that their answers reveal profound differences in how the two populations understand the roots of the conflict, extending beyond disagreements over negotiations, borders or security arrangements.

Palestinian responses repeatedly cite occupation, settlement expansion, land confiscation, home demolitions, checkpoints and violence as factors that make the establishment of a viable Palestinian state extremely difficult. Israeli responses, meanwhile, reflect security concerns about the creation of a Palestinian state, including fears that it could become militarised and pose a threat to Israel.

Abu Zina argues that this divide goes beyond disagreements over how the land should be partitioned. It raises more fundamental questions about the right to the land and the legitimacy of the other people's presence. While Palestinians who reject the possibility of coexistence often identify occupation as the principal obstacle to peace, some Israelis view a prospective Palestinian state itself as a source of danger.

The article concludes that the two-state solution faces a crisis at the level of its underlying assumptions. The framework presupposes mutual recognition of both peoples' right to exist and exercise self-determination, yet the survey reveals continuing doubts about those rights among sections of both populations.

Lamis Andoni: Removing Netanyahu Will Not End the Settlement Project

In her article Removing Netanyahu and Ben-Gvir Will Not Stop the Genocide, published on October 18, 2026, writer Lamis Andoni challenges the assumption that Netanyahu's defeat in the elections, or the removal of hardline figures such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich from government, would fundamentally change Israeli policies towards the Palestinians.

Andoni argues that reducing the problem to Netanyahu or his allies overlooks the historical roots of the settlement project, which predates their rise to power and is linked to policies pursued by successive Israeli governments. These include Labour-led administrations that Western governments once presented as more moderate.

The writer warns that a new Israeli government might slow settlement expansion and displacement or modify certain policies, but there is no guarantee that it would halt them as long as the underlying principles guiding Israel's approach to Palestinian land remain in place.

Andoni also criticises what she describes as an American and Western tendency to treat the crisis as a problem associated with particular political figures rather than confronting the broader scope of Israeli policy. She links this approach to political, military and economic interests, as well as efforts to limit Israel's international isolation without bringing about fundamental changes in its conduct.

The writer urges Arab governments not to wait for the election results before taking decisive action. She emphasises the importance of legal and diplomatic measures, continued accountability through international institutions and a broader approach to the future of the Palestinians that does not hinge on a change in Israeli leadership.

Andoni extends her analysis to Palestinian citizens of Israel, highlighting what she describes as efforts to pressure them into relinquishing their rights and national identity. Understanding developments across all parts of historic Palestine, she argues, is essential to understanding the nature of the conflict and its possible future trajectory.

Elections Alone Cannot Provide All the Answers

The three articles approach the issue from different perspectives, but they share scepticism about the ability of Israeli elections alone to produce a strategic shift in the course of the conflict.

The article focusing on Jordan examines the security and political risks associated with the continued influence of Israel's right wing. Abu Zina addresses the crisis of trust between Israelis and Palestinians and the resulting decline in prospects for peaceful coexistence. Andoni argues that the problem runs deeper than changes in political leadership, pointing instead to the nature of the settlement project and the policies pursued by the Israeli state.

Taken together, these analyses suggest that the challenges ahead extend beyond the identity of the election winner. They include the future of the West Bank and Jerusalem, the prospects for a two-state solution, the risks of displacement and regional escalation, and the international community's ability to translate its stated positions into meaningful political and legal pressure.

For Jordan, these issues are directly connected to national security, regional stability and the Hashemite custodianship of the holy sites in Jerusalem. The policies of the next Israeli government will therefore remain under close scrutiny, regardless of who ultimately leads it.

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