Tuesday, 02 January 2024 12:17 GMT

Societe Tunisienne de Banque – Ratings Affirmed with Stable Outlook


Date:

(MENAFN- Capital Intelligence Ltd) 16 October 2026

Capital Intelligence Ratings (CI Ratings or CI) today announced that it has affirmed the Long-Term Foreign Currency Rating (LT FCR) and Short-Term Foreign Currency Rating (ST FCR) of Societe Tunisienne de Banque (STB or the Bank) at ‘C+’ and ‘C’, respectively. At the same time, CI Ratings has affirmed STB’s Bank Standalone Rating (BSR) of ‘c’, Core Financial Strength (CFS) rating of ‘b’ and Extraordinary Support Level (ESL) of Moderate. The Outlook for the LT FCR and the BSR remains Stable.

STB’s LT FCR and BSR are constrained by CI’s internal assessment of sovereign credit risk for Tunisia. The Stable Outlook for the LT FCR is in line with CI’s internal assessment of sovereign risk for Tunisia, reflecting signs of stabilising sovereign risk factors – albeit still at a very high level. The outlook takes into consideration the narrowing current account deficit, supported by an increase in agricultural exports and tourism receipts. However, external refinancing risks remain high, aggravated by large external financing needs and limited financing options given the absence of direct access to capital markets. Political risk remains elevated and public finances remain weak. Downside risks for the banking sector remain high and pressure on banks’ credit profiles elevated due to financial stability risks and macroeconomic vulnerabilities.

STB’s BSR of ‘c’ (CI does not append ‘+/-’ modifiers to BSRs in the ‘c’ category) is derived from a CFS rating of ‘b’ and an Operating Environment Risk Anchor (OPERA) of ‘c+’, with the latter indicating significant risk. The BSR incorporates CI’s assessment of STB’s capacity to withstand sovereign-linked economic and financial stress. In a sovereign event, the Bank’s liquidity, capital and asset quality would be negatively impacted.

The ESL of Moderate balances the weak financial strength of the sovereign against the strong willingness of the government to assist the Bank in the event of need. The latter reflects the government’s majority ownership of the Bank and STB’s position as the third-largest bank in the country, controlling a significant share of sector assets and customer deposits.

The CFS is underpinned by the Bank’s significant market franchise in the Tunisian banking sector as one of the largest banks in the country, its majority ownership by the Tunisian government, adequate revenue and operating profitability, together with improved liquidity supported by a stable customer deposit base. The ratings are constrained by a very high level of NPLs, a rise in unprovided NPLs to equity, a high cost of risk, significant concentration risk in sovereign securities equivalent to 2x equity, inadequate capital buffers, a challenging operating environment, and the lack of international accounting standards and disclosure.

The Bank’s NPLs remain significant, and the NPL ratio is very high against gross loans, and much higher than the sector median. Loan-loss reserve coverage is just satisfactory. NPLs have long been a problem for STB, as they have for other Tunisian government banks. STB carries an overhang of historical bad loans together with more recent NPLs from the post-COVID crisis and economic slowdown. NPLs are mainly connected to the industry, services and tourism sectors. The banking regulator has announced that banks will need to comply (theoretically) with an NPL ratio of 7% by end-2026. This would appear very unlikely in STB’s case. Banks in Tunisia do not report to IFRS 9 Stage loan classification, but Stage 2 loans could be high due to the amount of loan restructuring in Tunisia.

Tunisian government securities were a higher 25% of total assets at end-2025, and thus there is significant concentration exposure to the low-rated sovereign. The share of government claims in total banking assets has risen over the last few years, as the banking sector increased its lending to the government and the sovereign-bank nexus rose in Tunisia.

STB’s capital base is just satisfactory but provides only a small buffer given the challenging operating environment, particularly given unprovided NPLs to equity rose further to 40% in 2025. STB’s CAR of 15.7% is comfortably above the regulatory minimum of 10.0% in Tunisia. The CAR is supported by favourable credit risk weights, particularly Tunisian government securities. Internal capital generation is modest. STB resumed dividend distribution in 2025. The decline in risk-weighted assets, specifically loans, has also aided capital ratios.

The Bank’s liquidity and funding position has improved notably over the past few years, driven by higher customer deposit growth together with negative loan growth, as management focused on trying to improve the quality of the lending portfolio. Over three-quarters of the balance sheet are funded by customer deposits. The level of liquid assets has increased significantly alongside the rise in government securities. In tandem, the liquidity coverage ratio is at a very high level. STB’s central bank funding facilities – a source most Tunisian banks utilise – have also fallen sharply over the last few years, and were negligible at both end-2025 and H1 26. Growth in customer deposits in H1 26 resulted in a further improvement in the loans-to-deposits ratio.

STB’s earnings strength in terms of operating income is adequate. Net profitability has fluctuated over the years due mainly to variability in impairment charges. Reflecting this, STB’s ROAA weakened in 2025 to a low level due to an increased cost of risk. Operating income to average assets has been fairly consistent for some years, and operating profitability is satisfactory. The Bank’s net interest margin widened slightly in 2025 but remains below the peer average. Bank-only results for H1 26 were much weaker, with net profit down by 59% against H1 25. The fall reflected lower net interest income, with operating income declining by 11%. Operating expenses were also higher due to increased staff costs.

Rating Outlook

The Outlook for LT FCR is Stable and in line with CI’s internal assessment of sovereign credit risk for Tunisia. CI expects STB to maintain its overall financials commensurate with its current ratings.

Rating Dynamics: Upside Scenario

A revision of the Outlook to Positive, or a rating upgrade, would need to be preceded by an upward revision of our internal assessment of sovereign credit risk for Tunisia, all other factors remaining unchanged.

Rating Dynamics: Downside Scenario

The Outlook could be revised to Negative or the ratings reduced by one notch in the next 12 months if the operating environment and/or economy deteriorate beyond our baseline scenario, negatively impacting the Bank’s financial profile. The CFS could come under pressure in the gap between unprovided NPLs and equity continued to increase.

Contact

Primary Analyst: Darren Stubing, Senior Credit Analyst; E-mail: ...
Secondary Analyst: Karti Inamdar, Senior Credit Analyst
Committee Chairperson: Morris Helal, Senior Credit Analyst


About the ratings

The credit ratings have been issued by Capital Intelligence Ratings Ltd, P.O. Box 53585, Limassol 3303, Cyprus.

The following information source was used to prepare the credit ratings: public information and information provided by the rated entity. Financial data and metrics have been derived by CI from the rated entity’s financial statements for FY2021-25. CI may also have relied upon non-public financial information provided by the rated entity and may also have used financial information from credible, independent third-party data providers.

CI considers the quality of information available on the rated entity to be satisfactory for the purposes of assigning and maintaining credit ratings. CI does not audit or independently verify information received during the rating process.

The principal methodology used to determine the ratings is the Bank Rating Methodology, dated 3 April 2019. For the methodology and our definition of default see Information on rating scales and definitions and the time horizon of rating outlooks can be found at Historical performance data, including default rates, are available from a central repository established by ESMA (CEREP) at

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Unsolicited Credit Rating

With Rated Entity or Related Third Party Participation:Yes
With Access to Internal Documents: No
With Access to Management: Yes


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