Crude oil prices pulled back in Asian trading on the morning of October 15
(MENAFN- MENAFNEditorial) Crude oil prices pulled back in Asian trading on the morning of October 15, with WTI retreating to around $93.8 per barrel after a five-session winning streak. The current pullback suggests that although concerns over supply disruptions continue to support prices, crude oil remains temporarily influenced by ’he market’s reassessment of the potential for a recovery in supply flows.
The attacks on Aramco on the evening of October 13 and on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz o– October 13–14 have heightened concerns over the safety of energy infrastructure and oil transportation from the Gulf. However, there is currently insufficient evidence to conclude that the Aramco attack disrupted oil production.
Accordingly,’I believe oil’s ability to sustain its gains will depend on the extent to which the attacks affect actual supply, particularly export volumes and passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
On the other hand, recovering oil export flows are partly limiting further price gains. According to the IEA report released on October 14, crude oil exports from Gulf producers recovered to more than 75% of pre-war levels in September. The agency also forecasts that global oil demand will decline by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026 compared with 2025.
However, the IEA still expects the market to remain undersupplied through the end of the year. Therefore, recovering supply and weakening consumption could limit price gains, but are not yet sufficient to eliminate concerns over tight market conditions.
The United States is also considering easing restrictions on certain sanctioned vessels, allowing them to transport crude oil and petroleum products that are not subject to Washington’s sanctions, with the aim of reducing transportation barriers and freight costs. The prospect of smoother oil flows could limit further price gains, although the actual impact will depend on implementation in practice.
In tod’y’s session, the EIA inventory report will be a key release to watch, after the API estimated that US crude oil inventories fell by 11.1 million barrels in the week ended October 9. If the EIA confirms a substantial draw, the data could support prices. However, imports, exports and refinery activity should also be examined to determine whether the inventory decline reflects improving demand or temporary changes in supply.
In the short term, I believe WTI could remain supported if the attacks cause more significant disruptions to oil export flows. However, sustaining the rally will require further evidence of tightening supply. Conversely, if transportation conditions improve and exports continue to recover while demand remains weak, the pullback could persist.
The attacks on Aramco on the evening of October 13 and on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz o– October 13–14 have heightened concerns over the safety of energy infrastructure and oil transportation from the Gulf. However, there is currently insufficient evidence to conclude that the Aramco attack disrupted oil production.
Accordingly,’I believe oil’s ability to sustain its gains will depend on the extent to which the attacks affect actual supply, particularly export volumes and passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
On the other hand, recovering oil export flows are partly limiting further price gains. According to the IEA report released on October 14, crude oil exports from Gulf producers recovered to more than 75% of pre-war levels in September. The agency also forecasts that global oil demand will decline by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026 compared with 2025.
However, the IEA still expects the market to remain undersupplied through the end of the year. Therefore, recovering supply and weakening consumption could limit price gains, but are not yet sufficient to eliminate concerns over tight market conditions.
The United States is also considering easing restrictions on certain sanctioned vessels, allowing them to transport crude oil and petroleum products that are not subject to Washington’s sanctions, with the aim of reducing transportation barriers and freight costs. The prospect of smoother oil flows could limit further price gains, although the actual impact will depend on implementation in practice.
In tod’y’s session, the EIA inventory report will be a key release to watch, after the API estimated that US crude oil inventories fell by 11.1 million barrels in the week ended October 9. If the EIA confirms a substantial draw, the data could support prices. However, imports, exports and refinery activity should also be examined to determine whether the inventory decline reflects improving demand or temporary changes in supply.
In the short term, I believe WTI could remain supported if the attacks cause more significant disruptions to oil export flows. However, sustaining the rally will require further evidence of tightening supply. Conversely, if transportation conditions improve and exports continue to recover while demand remains weak, the pullback could persist.
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