Brazil Runoff Polls Show Bolsonaro, Lula in Tight Race
(MENAFN) Brazil’s presidential contest is heading toward a razor-thin finish, with Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva statistically tied ahead of the Oct. 25 runoff, according to two polls released Tuesday by PoderData/Aya and BTG/Nexus.
The PoderData/Aya survey gave Bolsonaro, representing the Liberal Party (PL), 51% of valid votes, against 49% for Lula of the Workers' Party (PT). Meanwhile, the BTG/Nexus poll placed Bolsonaro at 52% and Lula at 48%.
Both surveys showed the candidates within their respective margins of error, pointing to a technical tie in the closely contested presidential race.
The latest PoderData/Aya findings also indicated a significant shift from its Oct. 8 survey, which showed Bolsonaro ahead by 53% to 47%. The new figures reflect a 2-percentage-point increase for Lula and an equivalent decline for Bolsonaro.
In broader voting-intention figures, Bolsonaro maintained a lead in both surveys. PoderData/Aya recorded support at 48% for Bolsonaro and 46% for Lula, while BTG/Nexus found the candidates at 48% and 45%, respectively.
Other respondents said they were undecided, refused to answer or intended to submit blank or null ballots.
For the PoderData/Aya survey, researchers interviewed 3,000 voters by telephone from Oct. 10 to 12. The poll has a margin of error of 1.8 percentage points.
The BTG/Nexus survey questioned 2,002 people aged 16 and older over the same three-day period, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points. Financial institution BTG Pactual commissioned the poll.
Both surveys were registered with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court.
The latest polling follows a competitive first round on Oct. 4, when Bolsonaro won 47.03% of valid votes and Lula received 45.16%, according to the official results.
With the runoff scheduled for Oct. 25, the latest figures underscore the narrow gap between the two candidates as Brazilian voters prepare to decide who will lead the country.
The PoderData/Aya survey gave Bolsonaro, representing the Liberal Party (PL), 51% of valid votes, against 49% for Lula of the Workers' Party (PT). Meanwhile, the BTG/Nexus poll placed Bolsonaro at 52% and Lula at 48%.
Both surveys showed the candidates within their respective margins of error, pointing to a technical tie in the closely contested presidential race.
The latest PoderData/Aya findings also indicated a significant shift from its Oct. 8 survey, which showed Bolsonaro ahead by 53% to 47%. The new figures reflect a 2-percentage-point increase for Lula and an equivalent decline for Bolsonaro.
In broader voting-intention figures, Bolsonaro maintained a lead in both surveys. PoderData/Aya recorded support at 48% for Bolsonaro and 46% for Lula, while BTG/Nexus found the candidates at 48% and 45%, respectively.
Other respondents said they were undecided, refused to answer or intended to submit blank or null ballots.
For the PoderData/Aya survey, researchers interviewed 3,000 voters by telephone from Oct. 10 to 12. The poll has a margin of error of 1.8 percentage points.
The BTG/Nexus survey questioned 2,002 people aged 16 and older over the same three-day period, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points. Financial institution BTG Pactual commissioned the poll.
Both surveys were registered with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court.
The latest polling follows a competitive first round on Oct. 4, when Bolsonaro won 47.03% of valid votes and Lula received 45.16%, according to the official results.
With the runoff scheduled for Oct. 25, the latest figures underscore the narrow gap between the two candidates as Brazilian voters prepare to decide who will lead the country.
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