(MENAFN- Investor Ideas) newswire ) a trusted go-to platform for big investing ideas, including crypto and defense stocks issues market commentary from Alice Liu, Head of Research at CoinMarketCap.CMC Exclusive Insight: One year after 10/10: the leverage is back, and it is not in BitcoinThe leverage did not leave the market after 10/10, it changed address. CoinMarketCap's global derivatives snapshot shows total open interest at $403.6 billion, up 8.5% in 24 hours and 14.8% on the week, from a yearly low on 27 September. Bitcoin's own open interest went the other way: $51.88 billion, down 6.13% on the week, at the 50th percentile of 90 days, with the 7-day funding rate at the 2nd percentile and open interest equal to just 1.16% of Bitcoin's market cap.
The rebuild is in the altcoins the same accounts are now trading: NEAR's open interest is $693.9 million, 8.99% of its market cap and up 252% in 30 days; Internet Computer's is up 54% in 30 days; Wormhole's is up 498% in 30 days and equal to 28.8% of its market cap. The flush that the anniversary posts were nervous about already happened, quietly, on 7 and 8 October: $185.9 million and $303.9 million of Bitcoin liquidations, 94% and 90% of them long positions, the two heaviest days since 21 September. CMC's leverage-reset lane now reads the reset as complete: liquidations have cooled to 2.3% of the 8 October peak, and open interest has rebounded only 1.93% off its trough. The Bitcoin perp market is clean. The altcoin perp market is where 10/10 would rhyme, if it does.
AdvertisementCMC Exclusive Insight: The ETF week Bitcoin was supposed to fall onCoinMarketCap's ETF lane confirms the outflow: $678.9 million net over five sessions, 0.61% of assets, with FBTC's -$380.3 million the largest fund-level redemption and the 7 October print (-$484.9 million) the heaviest day. It also confirms that the selling was not confined to ETFs: aggressive spot order flow over the three aligned sessions was -$279 million, long-term holders released 66,038 BTC over five sessions, and the Coinbase premium, a measure of US spot demand relative to offshore venues, is -0.113%, the 3rd percentile of its 30-day range and still deteriorating.
The price rose anyway, and the derivatives tape explains how: 85% of Sunday's $39.7 million of Bitcoin liquidations were shorts, and 85% of the rolling 24-hour total ($46.9 million) as well. Shorts added into the 7-8 October flush and were squeezed by the Sunday recovery; nobody was forced to buy spot. Exchange reserves fell 1.16% (28,599 BTC) over 30 days, led by Binance (-3.74%), which is consistent with coins leaving venues rather than arriving to be sold. CMC's own read of US demand is "stressed" and of overall demand "neutral". A market that rises on short covering while its largest regulated buyers redeem is a market whose next leg depends on Wednesday's CPI.
CMC-exclusive insight: Sentiment indices diverge, the crowd cooled on Bitcoin and warmed on altcoins in the same week.CoinMarketCap's Fear & Greed Index fell from 67 to 58 over seven days, its first "Neutral" reading since the summer rally that peaked at 82 on 27 August, while the Altcoin Season Index rose from 63 to 66, its highest level in a year, having been 39 a month ago. These two gauges rarely diverge this sharply: Fear & Greed is driven by Bitcoin's price momentum and volatility, the Altcoin Season Index by how many of the top 100 have beaten Bitcoin over 90 days. The split says the market's mood broke on Bitcoin's rejection at $87,364 and its ETF outflows, while a narrow set of mid-caps kept beating it. Bitcoin dominance rose on the week regardless (59.15% to 59.34%) because Ether's share slipped from 11.33% to 11.01%; the altcoin season is being won by NEAR, ICP, Zcash and a bridge token, not by Ether.
CMC exclusive insight: NEAR and ICP cleared the bar, but one of them is being carried by leverage, not spot demandInternet Computer (+13.09% to $3.448) and NEAR Protocol (+12.42% to $5.892) were the only two top-50 assets to clear CMC's outperformance line today, more than two standard deviations above the top-50 average move. But CMC's own positioning data says they got there differently, and that difference matters for how durable each move is.
ICP's move is spot-led: perpetual open interest sits at just 3.19% of its market cap, well below the 10% threshold at which CMC's lane treats derivatives as the driver, even though that open interest is up 54% over 30 days. The rally also has a news peg, DFINITY's ".icp" domain application passed initial ICANN review, and the team announced an imminent "cloud engines" launch with coupons for early builders.
NEAR's move is a closer call. Open interest is $693.9 million, 8.99% of market cap, up 252% in 30 days, with funding only mildly positive, CMC still classes it as spot-led, but only just, since spot order flow over the aligned window was actually slightly negative. That means the latest leg was carried by derivatives, not spot buyers, even though NEAR has multiple independent accounts describing a genuine monthly breakout above multi-year resistance. The risk sits in the order book: CMC's heatmap shows a liquidation pool worth 4x the size of the nearest upside cluster sitting just below spot, at $5.53, about 6% down from here.
The top-50 average 24-hour move is +3.55% (median +2.64%, standard deviation 3.42 points); two names sit above the +11.55% outperformance line (mean plus two standard deviations, floored at +8 points) and none below the -4.45% underperformance line. The next tier is Zcash +9.12%, Pump +8.59%, Ondo +7.83%, Avalanche +7.44%, Canton +7.20% and Ethena +7.05%; the weakest top-50 name is MemeCore at -4.07%.
CMC exclusive insight: The market is pricing a volatile month, not a directional oneBitcoin's relationship to traditional markets is shifting: its seven-session correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has loosened to 0.51 from 0.65 over 30 sessions, while its correlation with gold has tightened to 0.65 from 0.34. Its correlation with oil has flipped positive from negative, and so has its correlation with the dollar. CMC's regime lane labels the relationship "neutral following," with the Nasdaq link weakening.
Prediction markets reflect that uncertainty rather than resolve it: CMC's Polymarket-based prediction lane shows roughly a coin-flip probability of Bitcoin holding above $84,000 through mid-October, but an 85% probability of touching $85,000 and an 81.5% probability of touching $82,500 by 1 November, with the 50/50 reach strike at $88,618. The market is pricing both sides of a roughly 3% range as probable, a volatility view, not a directional one.
On liquidity, the broader backdrop is still expanding: net US liquidity is $5.865 trillion, up 1.42% on the week. The one active stress flag is Japan, whose short-term rate has risen 25bp over three months, keeping yen-carry risk on "watch" even as the front end of the US curve continues to price in hikes. Separately, Strategy's bitcoin buying has slowed: its most recent disclosed purchase was its smallest of the year, and the company spent several times more buying back its own preferred stock than buying bitcoin, while its preferred shares (STRC) trade close to par with no stress signal.
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