MENA Sovereign Ratings Have Been Resilient to US-Iran War
(MENAFN- MENAFNEditorial) Fitch Ratings-London-12 October 2026: Sovereign ratings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have been resilient to the US-Iran war, with higher oil prices, reviving oil exports and large buffers supporting sovereign credit profiles, Fitch Ratings says in a new report. Countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Iraq have borne the brunt of the conflict, facing sporadic attacks from Iran and regional proxies and disruption to the main route for their hydrocarbon exports. Fitch’s base case is that some form of durable deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will be achieved in 1Q27.
Elsewhere in the region, higher oil prices are being offset by a confluence of other factors. These include strong external support (Egypt and Jordan), rapid tourism growth (Egypt) and healthy FDI (Morocco). Modest fiscal reform has continued stabilising debt/GDP although authorities remain cognisant of social stability pressures.
The average rating for the region has not changed over the past 12 months despite the war. This stability captures one upgrade (Oman) and one downgrade (Bahrain), both of which took place before the war. The net Outlook balance is minus three, reflecting three Negative Outlooks and no Positive Outlooks. This is lowest balance since late 2021, when the region faced low oil prices in the aftermath of the pandemic.
Two Negative Outlooks, for Qatar and Ras al Khaimah, are tied to risks from the war. Both were recently converted from Negative Watches that were put in place at the height of hostilities. Qatar’s Negative Outlook reflects its inability to export LNG due to disruption at the strait. Ras al-Khaim’h’s Negative Outlook stems from risks to a potentially transformative tourism project that underpinned an earlier upgrade.
Israel remains on Negative Outlook due to a projected continued rise in public debt as well as war-related risks that could weaken its growth prospects and fiscal trajectory.
Please click here to read the full report.
Elsewhere in the region, higher oil prices are being offset by a confluence of other factors. These include strong external support (Egypt and Jordan), rapid tourism growth (Egypt) and healthy FDI (Morocco). Modest fiscal reform has continued stabilising debt/GDP although authorities remain cognisant of social stability pressures.
The average rating for the region has not changed over the past 12 months despite the war. This stability captures one upgrade (Oman) and one downgrade (Bahrain), both of which took place before the war. The net Outlook balance is minus three, reflecting three Negative Outlooks and no Positive Outlooks. This is lowest balance since late 2021, when the region faced low oil prices in the aftermath of the pandemic.
Two Negative Outlooks, for Qatar and Ras al Khaimah, are tied to risks from the war. Both were recently converted from Negative Watches that were put in place at the height of hostilities. Qatar’s Negative Outlook reflects its inability to export LNG due to disruption at the strait. Ras al-Khaim’h’s Negative Outlook stems from risks to a potentially transformative tourism project that underpinned an earlier upgrade.
Israel remains on Negative Outlook due to a projected continued rise in public debt as well as war-related risks that could weaken its growth prospects and fiscal trajectory.
Please click here to read the full report.
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