Iran War-Depleted Arsenal Making US A Less Potent Power

The drain on the reserves started earlier. In the 12-day war of June 2025, US forces reportedly fired more than 150 THAAD interceptors and about 80 SM-3s to defend Israel from Iran's incoming projectiles.

Washington recognized the replenishment challenge even before the Iran escalation. In January, the Pentagon and Lockheed Martin signed agreements to raise annual THAAD output from 96 to 400 and Patriot PAC-3 production from roughly 600 a year to 2,000 by the end of the decade.

But while money can be raised, borrowed or reallocated, factories, workers and supply chains don't move as quickly. The manufacturing lead time of these interceptors ranges from 25 to 51 months, meaning they can't be scaled up overnight. A Pentagon Inspector General report released in September found that the Iran war had exposed industrial bottlenecks, triggering a shortage of key munitions.

To be sure, the US military can still sustain the current Iran fight. Yet rapidly depleting munitions may weaken deterrence in other theaters. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that US forces have probably used between one-half and two-thirds of their missile-defense interceptor inventory since June 2025, and rebuilding it may take at least five years, even with increased production.

The shortage is already affecting Ukraine. Kyiv has reported an acute shortage of Patriot interceptors since the Iran war began. In August, President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Ukraine had two and a half times fewer interceptors than it had in 2025, while Russia fires twice as many ballistic missiles a month.

Washington has historically underestimated how long military commitments can last, straining its arsenal. The 2003 Iraq war was expected to produce a rapid victory, yet the US military commitment lasted far longer.

Just 11 days into the 2003 Iraq war, US forces were running critically low on some key weapons, having fired 700 of 1,200 Tomahawk cruise missiles and thousands of satellite-guided bombs. The Pentagon rushed to replenish stocks, but production couldn't keep pace with wartime consumption.

Trump is doubling down on the same mistake, pursuing a swift, decisive victory while promising to end America's past“forever wars.” He initially said the Iran war would last just a few weeks, but it is now in its eighth month.