CEE & CCA Week Ahead: Czech And Polish Inflation Data

(MENAFN- ING) Poland: Final CPI reading set to confirm inflation at 4%

The final September CPI reading released on Wednesday should confirm that headline inflation rose to 4% YoY, while core inflation eased, indicating that broad-based inflationary pressure is still absent and price growth remains concentrated in fuels and closely related goods and services. Yet the ongoing energy crisis may trigger a jump in regulated prices for households from the beginning of 2027. The short-term inflation outlook has improved with authorities cutting excise duty and VAT on fuels again, this time until the end of 2026. As a result, headline CPI should run within the 3.5-4.0% YoY range by the end of the year.

August BOP data will also be released on Wednesday. We forecast that in August the current account deficit was slightly higher than €2bn, but slightly lower than in August 2025. As a result, the 12-month rolling current account deficit remains at around 1% of GDP. Growth in exports and imports of goods is expected to have moderated back to a single-digit pace after two months of double-digit expansion in foreign trade growth.

Czech Republic: Final inflation reading and producer prices ahead

The final release on Tuesday is set to confirm September's headline inflation figure, while attention will focus on the degree of gains in core inflation and regulated prices. The current account deficit probably became less pronounced in August, supported by decent export performance.

Meanwhile, persistently elevated energy prices on global markets, rising input costs, and a weaker koruna are likely to have contributed to stronger producer price inflation in September.

Key events in CEE & CCA next week Source: Refinitiv, ING Forecasts

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