Anthropic's $2 Trillion IPO Puts AI's Circular Money Machine On Trial

The comments from Nigel Green come as Anthropic heads towards a Nasdaq debut that could value it at up to $2 trillion, while one independent research house puts its worth at just $150 billion and brands it the "most ridiculous IPO" of 2026.

The gulf between ambition and accounts is vast. A leaked copy of the prospectus shows Anthropic generated $4.6 billion of revenue in 2025 while posting a net loss of $42 billion.

To justify a $2 trillion price, the research house, New Constructs, estimates the company would need to earn around double the trailing annual profit of Nvidia, the world's most valuable tech company, which topped $190 billion.

Anthropic sits right at the centre. It has signed up to spend $518 billion on AI infrastructure, including up to $84.5 billion of computing capacity from SpaceX through 2029.

SpaceX builds its AI data centres exclusively with hardware from Nvidia, which holds a stake of nearly $21 billion in the company, and it reportedly now seeks $40 billion, mostly through bonds, to buy more of those chips.

Borrowing is increasingly filling the gap. For the first time, the capital spending of the five largest hyperscalers is set to exceed their combined operating cash flow, and debt has climbed from 9% of their capex in fiscal 2024 to 32% by mid 2026.

The Bank of England now warns that rising indebtedness, opacity and "circular arrangements" in AI financing could amplify losses if expectations disappoint.

He points to the turn of the century, when telecoms suppliers lent heavily to customers so they could keep buying equipment.

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