Burnham Reopens Brexit Debate as 57 Percent Regret Leaving EU

(MENAFN) Prime Minister Andy Burnham has broken one of British politics’ longest-standing taboos. He told the Labour Party’s annual conference that Brexit had “done more harm than good,” a surprise that caught many of his own Cabinet colleagues off guard.

Burnham said that to “restore a higher level of growth and prosperity,” the country needed a “clear path … into the rest of the century.” He pledged to “take the opportunity … to lay out to the country what … the different options are” and then to “see if we could find consensus around one which will give us clarity about our position, and the future of the continent we live in.”

The remarks end a silence that has, since 2016, confined most of the UK’s center-left politicians to promising, as his predecessor Keir Starmer did, to “make Brexit work.” The caution stems largely from fear of seeming to defy what Leave campaigners still call the “will of the people” expressed in the 2016 referendum.

Polls and politics
No backlash from “the people” followed, and, tellingly, neither did any detailed defense of Brexit’s benefits from its advocates. The author of this analysis notes that a majority of Britons have told pollsters since early 2021 that the 2016 decision was wrong. About 57% of voters now hold that view, including 23% of those who voted Leave, while roughly 55% want to rejoin the EU. Around eight in 10 of the voters Burnham needs, whether to back Labour or to vote tactically to keep the Conservatives and Reform UK out of office at the next election, favor rejoining.

The economic case
The author argues the economics are just as compelling. Research pointing to severe damage to UK trade, growth and public finances, together with the shift in public opinion and doubts over the USA as a reliable ally, probably explains why Burnham concluded after only 10 weeks in office that more must be done to reverse or further mitigate what the author calls a colossal act of self-harm.

Under Starmer, the Labour government pursued incremental steps to ease trade friction caused by the UK’s departure. No economist expects that approach, or the trade deals signed under the Conservatives, to add more than a fraction of a percent to GDP. The only move that would make a real difference is joining both the customs union, as Türkiye has, and the single market. Doing so without full rejoining would make the UK a “rule-taker,” something the author says a large economy so attached to its sovereignty would probably find unacceptable in principle and in practice.

The smart money, the author says, is on a Labour manifesto pledge not to rejoin outright but to open negotiations on a closer relationship with the EU, with any deal put to a referendum.

A steep price of re-entry
Winning such a vote is far from assured, particularly if full membership is on the table. Current member states would almost certainly deny the UK most of the opt-outs and the budget rebate it held before formally leaving in 2020, and polling shows support for rejoining falls significantly once voters are presented with that scenario.

Approval would also have to come from every EU member state, which cannot be guaranteed. European governments may fear that a future Eurosceptic government could reverse a UK return. Talks would also be held with a bloc whose two largest members, France and Germany, could by then be led by far-right parties, the French RN and the German AfD, whose affinity for Britain is questionable at best.

Yet Britain remains a relatively wealthy middle power with an outsized diplomatic and defense presence. French President Emmanuel Macron’s positive reaction to Burnham’s opening move suggests many European politicians and publics would welcome a UK that finally recognizes that, amid growing economic and geopolitical instability, being inside the EU is the safest place to be.

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