Tuesday, 02 January 2024 12:17 GMT

EUR/USD Signal 08/10: Sellers Hold The Upper Hand


(MENAFN- Daily Forex) Bearish view
    Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1100. Add a stop-loss at 1.1300. Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish view
    Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1300. Add a stop-loss at 1.1100.

The EUR/USD exchange rate continued its recent downward trend as US bond yields surged to the highest level in years. It dropped to 1.1182, down substantially from the August high of 1.1708.US and European Bond Yields are Soaring

The EUR/USD pair plunged as the US and European bond yields continued their upward trend. In the US, the ten-year yield rose to 5.317%, its highest level in over two decades. Similarly, the five-year and three-month yields jumped to 5.05% and 4.15%. Mortgage rates rose to the highest level in over three years.

US bond yields have been in a strong rally in the past few months as public spending has escalated. The US now has over $40.2 trillion, and the figure is expected to cross the important $41 trillion mark early next year. There are also concerns that some of the biggest sovereign debt holders will start selling their holdings.

US bond yields held steady as crude oil prices continued rising. Brent, the global benchmark, jumped to $101, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) moved to $90. These events have pushed investors to rush to the safety of the US dollar.

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European bond yields have also continued rising. In France, the ten-year yield rose to 4.865%, while in Italy, it jumped to 4.70%. This surge has led to concerns that a new European debt crisis is coming.

The EUR/USD pair reacted mildly to the latest Federal Reserve minutes that came out overnight. These minutes showed that most Fed officials expect interest rates to continue rising this year. However, odds of a rate hike have dropped on Polymarket and Kalshi after the recent US jobs and inflation data. The data showed that the economy created just 29k jobs, while inflation softened a bit in August.

EURUSD Chart by TradingViewEUR/USD Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows that the EUR/USD pair has plunged in the past four weeks. It dropped from a high of 1.1708 in August to a low of 1.1160 on Monday. It then stabilized on Tuesday as the sell-off lost momentum.

The pair then resumed the downward trend. It remains below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average. It also remains below the Supertrend indicator, a sign that bears remain in control.

Therefore, technicals and fundamentals suggest that the euro sell-off has more room to go. If this happens, it may drop to the psychological level of 1.1100.

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