Politics With Michelle Grattan: Why Victoria's Unpredictable Election Matters Nationally

(MENAFN- The Conversation)

There are just seven weeks to go before the Victorian election on November 28. Labor is trying to beat the odds to do something it's never achieved in the state before: after 12 years in power, it's trying to win its fourth straight term.

But was Labor's third change of premier this term – from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll in July – too late to make any difference?

On today's special election podcast, we're joined by the Victorian premier, as well as Opposition Leader Jess Wilson and One Nation's state Deputy Leader, Colleen Harkin.

The result is being closely watched around Australia, particularly as a test of One Nation's strength.

The election result remains surprisingly unpredictable, as Tony Barry – a former senior Liberal staffer turned director of polling and political consultancy firm Redbridge – explains.

Why it's still too close to call

Barry said“there is a massive mood for change in Victoria”, with about 75% of Victorians saying the state is heading in the wrong direction.

Even after the leadership change from Allan to Carroll, Barry said there's been no lift on Labor's vote.

But while“there's very little love for the government and they're polling at around 25% primary vote”, Barry said the Coalition will have to overcome Labor's significant electoral buffer.

Carroll: 'it's never been done before'

Victoria's Premier, Ben Carroll, was only installed in late July, after his predecessor Allan abruptly resigned.

He's dealing with a complicated Labor legacy, from COVID lockdowns, to high debt and allegations of Construction, Forestry and Maritime Employees Union (CFMEU) corruption on Big Build projects – now the subject of a royal commission.

On state versus federal issues, Carroll said some national issues are having an impact on Labor's support in Victoria.

Carroll admitted he's behind at the moment, but declared“we're coming home”.

He insisted he would“throw back the keys” rather than do a deal with the Greens to form minority government – and challenged the opposition to do the same rather than deal with One Nation.

Read more: Ben Carroll is the new Victorian premier. He has a long and urgent to-do list – and 4 months until an election

Wilson: 'repairing the budget is the most important thing'

Despite Labor's uphill battle to hang onto power, that doesn't guarantee an easy victory for Opposition Leader Jess Wilson.

To win majority government, she will have to pick up 16 seats. Local memories are still fresh of Liberal Party instability, highlighted during the Moira Deeming saga. And Wilson is also under challenge from the rise of One Nation.

Wilson is currently shadow treasurer, as well as opposition leader. How long would that continue if she became premier?

Wilson also forecast a shake-up to the Victorian public service.

Harkin: One Nation 'will work with anybody to remove Labor'

Pollster Tony Barry noted Victoria has traditionally being One Nation's weakest state, though its recent support in the polls has stayed“fairly consistent”.

Even if there were campaign controversies, Barry said it was hard to see the party winning less than 15% of the vote statewide, predicting:

But One Nation's Victorian Deputy Leader, Colleen Harkin, said her party wants to win government in its own right.

Harkin, a one-time federal Liberal candidate, recently quit the Liberals after decades of membership to join Pauline Hanson's party.

She said her values and attitudes hadn't changed; instead, the Liberal Party had.

She said One Nation was prepared to work with a minority Coalition government if need be, in exchange for policy outcomes.

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