How Yemen's Renewed Civil War Could Set The Whole Region Ablaze

Tehran's Houthi allies, who control one-third of Yemen (including the capital, Sanaa), entered the fray to support Iran earlier this year. They have tightened their control of the vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.

And they have made territorial gains in Yemen since July, with the aim of taking over the whole country, while also attacking Saudi oil facilities, tankers and its main airport in Riyadh.

An attack in recent days again halted the pumping of oil through the East-West Pipeline, which Riyadh has been using to export oil via Bab el-Mandeb since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Yemeni and Saudi forces have launched a counteroffensive in recent days in an attempt to retake all the territory held by the Houthis, raising the specter of a return to a major civil war and a potentially dire humanitarian crisis for Yemenis.

Riyadh has asked Washington to carry out airstrikes on the Houthis, but Trump has declined the request to get actively involved, instead offering support from US intelligence and military analysts in the country.

Trump has been disinclined to expand the US-Iran war and get the US embroiled in another conflict, while the potential for a restart of the war with Iran remains very real.

In addition, despite his denials that he is concerned, Trump will no doubt be aware of the impact of the Iran war on American consumers, with higher petroleum prices and cost-of-living pressures. His Republican Party is urgently trying to shore up its voter base with the midterm elections now just a month away.

Without direct US involvement, Riyadh has looked for support from its new security partners, Pakistan and Turkey. Before committing to deploy military forces to Saudi Arabia this week, the two had appeared cautious about getting involved – caught between the need to support Saudi Arabia and not to offend Iran and its strategic partners, Russia and China.

The renewed conflict has already taken a very heavy toll on the Yemeni people, with more than 800 killed, 3,000 injured and 158,000 displaced. This comes on top of the hundreds of thousands of people who have died since the civil war and Saudi-led intervention began in 2014–15.

These deaths were due to fighting, as well as indirect impacts such as hunger, disease and lack of health services and infrastructure.

The worse the fighting becomes in Yemen, the greater the impact on the world economy.

While the Strait of Hormuz remains partially inoperable due to the fear of ships being attacked, some tankers have managed to sail through after making deals with Iran's new Persian Gulf Strait Authority, or with US escort protection.

The US energy secretary, Chris Wright, recently claimed 13 million barrels of crude oil were getting through the strait daily. This has been disputed by Iran.