World Bank Keeps Jordan's Growth Forecasts At 2.7% For 2026, 2.9% For 2027

(MENAFN- Jordan Times) AMMAN - The World Bank has maintained its economic growth forecasts for Jordan unchanged from its April estimates, projecting an expansion of 2.7 per cent in 2026 and 2.9 per cent in 2027, despite the fallout from the war, regional developments and disruptions in energy and trade markets that led the bank to downgrade growth prospects for numerous regional economies.

According to a World Bank report, cited by Al Mamlaka public news service, the reaffirmation of Jordan's growth projections reflects a degree of resilience in the Kingdom's economic outlook, at a time when the World Bank expects the broader Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (MENAAP) region to contract by 2.1 per cent this year, following a 3.3 per cent expansion in 2025.

According to the October 2026 MENAAP Economic Update, Jordan's growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remained unchanged compared with the bank's April estimates.

The bank revised its 2026 growth projection for the Kingdom downwards by 0.1 percentage points relative to January estimates, whilst raising the 2027 forecast by the same margin.

The report noted that oil-importing economies in the region, including Jordan, demonstrated greater resilience compared with oil-exporting nations, with growth for this group expected to rise to 4.3 per cent in 2026, up from 3.9 per cent in 2025.

The World Bank estimated Jordan's economic growth at 2.8 per cent in 2025, before slowing slightly to 2.7 per cent during the current year and accelerating to 2.9 per cent next year.

The report attributed the anticipated slight deceleration in growth during 2026 to declining tourism revenues and higher energy import costs, whilst robust domestic economic activity and trade through Aqaba helped offset part of these headwinds.

Growth in Jordan is expected to boost moderately in 2027, supported by an improvement in regional trade and transit conditions.

According to the report, the spillovers of the war are transmitted to oil-importing countries primarily through elevated energy, food, shipping and insurance costs, exerting pressure on external accounts and inflation, whereas strong domestic demand in several of these economies has mitigated the impact of these pressures.

In an indicator of improving per capita economic activity, the World Bank projected GDP per capita growth in Jordan to rise from 1.8 per cent in 2025 to 2 per cent in 2026, and further to 2.1 per cent in 2027.

As for prices, the report anticipates Jordan's inflation rate to reach 2.5 per cent this year before easing to 2.3 per cent in 2027, compared with 1.8 per cent in 2025.

The bank's forecasts also indicate a gradual narrowing of the fiscal deficit from 5 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 4.6 per cent and to 4.3 per cent in 2026 and 2027, respectively.

On external accounts, the bank expects the current account deficit to stand at 7.3 per cent of GDP in 2026, before narrowing to 5.9 per cent in 2027, compared with 5.6 per cent in 2025.

Regarding air traffic, the report highlighted a stronger recovery in cities outside the Gulf region, including Amman, where flight arrivals by late August returned to or exceeded pre-conflict levels, alongside other regional cities.

Addressing future growth drivers, the World Bank said that the Kingdom performs relatively well in innovation and economic integration, despite remaining gaps in digital infrastructure.

It also classified Jordan among lower-middle-income economies performing above their income group average in GovTech maturity.

The report pointed out that Jordan is consolidating its position as a regional technology hub and is already deploying artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in the education and health sectors to support learning and enable preventive screening and diagnostics in remote areas.

According to the bank, Jordan is strategically focusing on developing its AI ecosystem through research and development, business environment reform, capacity building and expanding public sector applications to address capital and market size constraints.

Data cited in the report showed that 113 Jordanian firms were active in the AI technology market as of July 2026, noting that the Kingdom's strategy aims to increase the number of AI researchers by 30 per cent.

MENAFN06102026000028011005ID1111770575