With Midterms Approaching, Trump And Republicans Likely To Experience The 'Six-Year Itch'

(MENAFN- Gulf Times) With one month to go until the Congressional midterm elections on November 3, the signs suggest that the laws of political gravity are finally beginning to catch up with Donald Trump since he descended a golden escalator in Trump Tower to announce his candidacy for president in June 2015, Trump has weathered crises that would have done for almost any other figure in US political history most of his colleagues, including many in the Republican Party itself, wrote him off following the January 2021 riots at the Capitol, Trump mounted a spectacular comeback as he first routed his primary opponents in early 2024 and then swept back into the White House with a commanding victory over Kamala Harris the 2024 US elections, the Republicans won a“trifecta” of the presidency and both the Senate and the House of Representatives, just as they had done in 2016 Trump's first term, that unified control only lasted for two years as Democrats won back the House even as the Republicans actually increased their majority in the Senate time around, most opinion polls suggest that the Democrats are again on track to win back the House, where the Republicans are defending a very small majority is more uncertainty about the Senate as Democrats will need to flip four seats and ensure they do not lose any of their own term presidents often suffer from a“six-year itch” which sees popular and political support slump as their administration begins to draw to a close affected the presidencies of George W Bush and Barack Obama as their parties suffered heavy defeats in the midterm elections of 2006 and 2014, although Bill Clinton bucked the trend when he performed strongly in his second midterm in 1998, having lost badly in 1994 instead Trump is not serving a consecutive second term, he appears set to follow Bush and Obama 2006 midterms offer parallels with today years ago, an unpopular president was struggling badly with a war in the Middle East that had gone badly wrong and was facing mounting economic pressures at home gained control of both houses of Congress as they flipped six seats in the Senate and 31 in the House to make the final two years of the Bush presidency a particularly lame-duck one backlash to the Iraq debacle led Bush to dismiss Donald Rumsfeld as secretary of defence and to commence plans to draw down US forces, albeit only after initially authorising a surge in troop levels 2014, the Democrats lost even more seats in the Senate – nine – as Republicans won back that chamber and expanded their majority in the House as well both occasions, 2006 and 2014, the midterm setbacks were a portend of what was to come in the next presidential election as Obama routed John McCain in 2008 while Trump caused a political sensation when he defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 despite losing the popular vote by 3mn ahead to November 3, the mathematics in the House appears more straightforward for the Democrats than it does in the Senate wafer-thin Republican majority means that a flip of only three seats will return the lower chamber to Democratic control, which would enable powerful committees to begin investigations into aspects of the administration's conduct over the past two years in 2018, voter dissatisfaction with the opening half of Trump's first term saw the Democrats pick up 41 seats, but such has been the level of electoral redistricting that a comparable gain is rather less likely this time around said, it is probable that Republicans will lose the House when Congress reconvenes in January for the Senate are more evenly balanced strategists are confident of gaining North Carolina and believe they have realistic chances of flipping seats in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and even Texas, where a Democrat last won a Senate seat in 1988 in each of these seats would see the Democrats take back the Senate, but they would also need to avoid defeat in three seats they are defending, in Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire Jon Ossoff's performance in Georgia looks to have made him safe and has marked him as a star in Democratic circles with an eye to a 2028 presidential run, the races in Michigan and New Hampshire are closer, and Republicans may win one or both therefore looks as if the US may be heading for a period of divided governance where one or both houses of Congress are controlled by party in opposition to the White House an ordinary administration this would be a signal for policy sclerosis and be magnified by the traditional“lame-duck” period of a presidency reaching its end, but such has been the mercurial nature of Trump's second term in office that Congress has barely functioned may then change is that a Democrat-run House and potentially Senate will try at least to exert limits on the administration's actions, including through the War Powers Act, even though presidents typically have greater freedom of action in foreign policy matters the midterms are over, political attention in the US will begin to shift to 2028, the first presidential election since 2012 which will not feature a Trump candidacy itself will move the spotlight away from the hitherto all-consuming focus on Trump, and Republicans, in particular, may struggle to identify a pathway to a“post-Trump” future this early stage, it appears that Vice-President JD Vance may square off against Secretary of State Marco Rubio, while for the Democrats the field seems to be wide open, with even Kamala Harris reportedly eyeing a new run for office has been the dominance of Trump across all aspects of US politics, for an unusually long period spanning three terms rather than the normal two, that shifting attention to other candidates will seem an innovation in itself.

. The writer is a leading scholar specialising in Gulf politics and international political economy, and a fellow at the Baker Institute and co-director of the Middle East Energy Roundtable.

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