LNG Flows Through Hormuz Accelerate Despite Security Risks

Despite ongoing security concerns and uncertainty, the number of liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz in September reached its highest monthly level since the start of the US-Iran war.

Reuters reports, citing S&P Global Energy data, that a total of 19 LNG cargoes passed through the strategic waterway in September.

Eric Yep, a lead analyst at S&P, said the figure compares with 15 shipments recorded in June, when an agreement between the United States and Iran began taking effect.

"LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated in the second half of September, and if this trend continues in October, we could see monthly shipments recover to 25% of pre-war levels," Yep noted.

Kpler showed that 21 LNG cargoes passed through the Strait of Hormuz in September, 15 more than in June.

Despite the conflict, more LNG vessels linked to QatarEnergy have passed through the strait in recent weeks. Kpler and LSEG ship-tracking data showed that three more LNG carriers loaded at Qatar's Ras Laffan export terminal reappeared near the waterway this week.

Two of the vessels, Al Kharaij and Al Gharrafa, are linked to QatarEnergy. The former was last seen in the strait on September 22-23 before reappearing off the western coast.

According to Yep, the key concern is whether LNG transit through the Strait of Hormuz will continue throughout the winter. He said this will depend on whether higher exports through the strait could be perceived as a loss of control by Iran, potentially prompting further military escalation, as well as whether convoys escorted by US naval forces will continue.

Before the war, which began on February 28, approximately one-fifth of global crude oil and LNG supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

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