Tuesday, 02 January 2024 12:17 GMT

UAE's Mubadala Leads As Mena Swfs Spend Dh374 Billion Despite US-Iran War


(MENAFN- Khaleej Times) Abu Dhabi's Mubadala was once again the most acquisitive sovereign investor in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region, deploying $26.2 billion (Dh96.15 billion) in the first nine months of 2026.

According to Global SWF's 2026 Mena Playbook, Mena sovereign investors as a group deployed $102 billion (Dh374 billion) across 245 transactions in the period to September 30, representing 39 per cent of all dealmaking by state-owned investors globally, below the levels of 2023-25 in both absolute and relative terms.

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Mubadala's total includes capital deployed by its subsidiaries Adic, Mubadala Capital and MGX, which took part in multi-billion financing rounds for OpenAI, Anthropic and Databricks.

It is followed by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) with $14 billion, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) with $12.2 billion, L'imad with $10.8 billion and the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) with $10.3 billion.

Year-end projection

If the current pace continues, Mena funds will deploy $136 billion in 2026, the report says.

That would be well below 2025, when PIF's takeover of EA boosted the total, but still the second-highest year on record. The projected 327 deals would also be the second-highest number on record, behind only 2019, driven by smaller but more frequent technology investments.

Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and public pension funds from the rest of the world invested $160 billion by the end of the third quarter, more than in the whole of 2025.

Most Gulf funds are on course to invest more in 2026 than their 2020-25 annual average, the report says, including Qatar's QIA and Kuwait's KIA, which may be tapped by their governments.

Where the money is going

The US remains the preferred destination, taking 45 per cent of the value invested by Mena funds, followed by China including Hong Kong (10 per cent), the UK (7 per cent) and Singapore (3 per cent). Almost a fifth of the $102 billion was deployed within funds' home economies, while 81 per cent went abroad. The UAE received $18.2 billion.

Technology, including artificial intelligence-related rounds, was the most popular sector, accounting for 28 per cent of deals by volume and almost 30 per cent by value. Infrastructure took 22 per cent and financial services 14 per cent. Real estate fell to just 5 per cent of volume and 11 per cent of value.

Iran war pressure

The report says the Mena region has been significantly affected by the Iran-US war and the disruption to global trade and energy supply caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Financial systems and markets continue to operate, however, and some countries have coped better than expected.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) remains heavily reliant on oil, with 67 per cent of GDP coming from oil exports. Kuwait reported a budget deficit of $23.1 billion by March 31 and Qatar $5.8 billion by June 30, which could mean fresh withdrawals from the KIA and the first-ever tapping of the QIA.

As a result, the industry's assets under management could fall for the first time since 2015, with a short-term impact on liquidity and global dealmaking.

Long-term outlook

The report expects a recovery by the end of the decade. Mena SWFs, which manage $6.1 trillion today, could reach $8.8 trillion by 2030, a compound annual growth rate of 9.6 per cent. Pension funds, central banks and family offices are forecast to grow more slowly, at between 2.5 per cent and 6 per cent a year. Together, Mena state-owned investors are projected to manage $13 trillion by 2030, up from US$9.7 trillion this year.

Some GCC countries are rethinking their fiscal strategies because of the war, and new direct and indirect taxes may be introduced within the next year, the report adds.

State-owned investors still control 65 per cent of the market capitalisation of the 971 entities listed in the GCC, according to the report.

Only eight initial public offerings (IPOs) have been completed this year, and GCC market capitalisation has stayed flat at US$4 trillion.

Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) has not slowed because of the conflict and is on track to register more companies in 2026 than ever before, the report says. It adds that Abu Dhabi has slipped to second place behind Oslo in the latest World City Ranking. As of September 30, 620 financial firms were licensed to operate from the free zone.

The playbook also studies the overlap between SWFs and royal family offices through the family trees of the GCC's ruling families, and ranks all 170 Mena sovereign investors. It also lists 400 IPOs completed on regional exchanges between January 2017 and September 2026.

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Khaleej Times

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