UAE Central Bank Raises 2027 GDP Growth Forecast To 10.4%

(MENAFN- Khaleej Times) The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) has raised its growth forecast for next year to over 10 per cent, driven by both the oil and non-oil sectors.

According to its latest Quarterly Economic Review, the UAE's GDP is projected to grow by 10.4 per cent in 2027, compared with the 9.8 per cent growth it projected in its June Quarterly Economic Review. This represents an upward revision of 0.6 percentage points, as the central bank expects the UAE to reach oil production of five million barrels per day next year.

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“The UAE economy is expected to maintain positive growth momentum over the medium term. Following solid growth in 2024 and 2025, economic activity is projected to continue growing in 2026, with growth reaching 10.4 per cent in 2027, supported by expansion in both hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon activity,” it said.

“The medium-term outlook remains supported by continued growth in both hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon activity. Overall real GDP growth is projected at 1.6 per cent in 2026, with hydrocarbon-sector activity expected to expand by 2.4 per cent. Growth is projected to strengthen in 2027, supported by a projected 26.8 per cent increase in hydrocarbon activity to reach 5 mbd in 2027. This profile reflects the expected normalisation of production conditions, while the outlook remains subject to developments in the external environment,” the Central Bank said.

The Central Bank's report comes in the wake of recent comments by Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri, the UAE Minister of Economy and Tourism, at the FHS Summit, where he said that the UAE will see a“counter-attack year” next year after slower economic growth due to the war.

He added that the country will come back very strongly, with a“huge rebound happening here.”

“People think that we are recovering. We're not recovering, we're actually coming peacefully back,” Al Marri said while speaking on the second day of the Future Hospitality Summit World at Madinat Jumeirah.

The UAE's non-oil sectors are on a growth path after the Middle East war broke out on February 28, as confidence improves and concerns around regional conflict recede.

In addition, the UAE is increasing its oil output after exiting Opec earlier this year. The UAE aims to increase its output to five million barrels per day, which would improve the country's fiscal balance.

Global ratings agency S&P Global said in a recent note that the UAE's oil production is expected to gradually increase over the next three years as Adnoc targets 5 million barrels per day (mbpd) following the country's exit from Opec.

Since the UAE's exit from Opec, its oil production capacity has increased from 3.41 mbpd, the official quota set by the organisation, to around 4.85 mbpd.

Following growth of 6.8 per cent in 2025, the UAE Central Bank said non-oil GDP is projected to expand by 1.3 per cent in 2026 and 4.9 per cent in 2027. This outlook reflects the continued contribution of a broad range of non-hydrocarbon sectors to economic activity.

The apex bank noted that the country entered 2026 with strong fiscal buffers, supported by low public debt and substantial sovereign assets, providing scope to support the economy as needed.

“Ongoing measures, including the CBUAE Financial Resilience Package, Dubai's Dh2.5 billion support initiative, and infrastructure-related public expenditure, are expected to support economic activity and maintain favourable conditions for businesses and investment. Together with the UAE's sound macroeconomic fundamentals, these measures are expected to support continued growth over the forecast horizon,” it added.

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