Joy Mixed With Fear For Residents As US Forces Leave Iraq To Potential Security Vacuum

(MENAFN- Khaleej Times) Iraqis celebrated the departure of US forces after more than two decades of war on Wednesday, though many were worried that a security vacuum could increase the power of Iran-backed militia or provide an opening for the return of Daesh.

The withdrawal of the final troops, mainly from an airbase in Erbil in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region, ended the biggest US war of the century, which brought widespread devastation and chaos from which Iraq has yet to fully emerge.

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Tehran and its allies hailed the withdrawal as a victory in their campaign to drive US forces from the Middle East. Iraqi troops paraded in vehicles through the streets of Baghdad and the Shi'ite holy city of Najaf to mark the pullout.

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The withdrawal "fills our hearts with joy," said Baghdad resident Ahmed Salah, who said he felt reborn at the age of 70. But he also said it was now time for powerful militia groups to surrender their weapons, "and let the government be the one responsible to protect me and you on the ground, sky and water."

The pullout was agreed in 2024 under President Joe Biden and carried out by Donald Trump's administration even as it wages war against Iran next door.

US forces invaded to topple Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003, triggering years of upheaval and chaos. The Americans initially left at the end of 2011 but came back less than three years later to assist Iraqi forces afterIslamic State fighters seized a third of Iraq and imposed violent rule.

More than 4,500 US troops died in Iraq, around twice as many as in the parallel war in Afghanistan. The Iraq Body Count project says more than 200,000 Iraqi civilians were killed.

The Pentagon said the United States and its coalition partners formally concluded "Operation Inherent Resolve" and Washington would continue to provide targeted training and intelligence support to Iraqi partners.

The Iraqis are expected to lead the effort to secure the country, an ally of both Washington and Tehran, and keep the remnants of Islamic State suppressed.

“The end of the international coalition's mission does not mean the end of our battle against terrorism, but rather Iraq's transition to a phase in which it assumes full responsibility for its security and stability," said Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi in a statement.

'Security vacuums can be extremely dangerous'

While the departure of US forces is broadly popular among Iraqis, some worry that security forces trained and funded by the United States still can't protect the country.

"The lesson from the past two decades is that security vacuums can be extremely dangerous," said Jassim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi analyst who advises the security forces.

Adil Salman, 45, a high school English teacher, said Iraqis "should not rush to celebrate" the withdrawal.

"Militias still operate outside the state's control and (Daesh) still has not disappeared," he said. "I'm concerned that the US departure could lead to a new period of instability. In the end, people will judge this decision by one thing: whether security remains stable in the coming years."

With US forces present alongside armed groups allied to Iran, Iraq has been caught up in this year's war.

Of the 18 US service members listed as killed since Trump launched "Operation Epic Fury " alongside Israel in February, seven died in Iraq. The last was an army sergeant who died during the controlled detonation of a drone at a base near Erbil in July.

Iran, allies are the winners

Iran, which has entrenched its influence in Iraq through allied armed groups since Saddam's fall, casts the US pullout as a triumph for its "axis of resistance" of allied armed groups across the region.

The withdrawal raises "the possibility that Iran's proxies will feel increasingly empowered in the absence of a Western military presence. These groups may attempt to expand their role in shaping state policies and consolidating their presence within key institutions," said Baghdad-based political analyst Ahmed Younis.

Some Iraqi security officials, both in the federal government and the semi-autonomous northern Kurdish region, say the US pullout also risks giving new life to Daesh fighters, who, despite the defeat of their self-proclaimed caliphate nearly a decade ago, retain a sleeper cell network.

The last time the US withdrew, the Iraqi army proved no match for Daesh: soldiers took off their uniforms and fled when the group captured Mosul, Iraq's second-largest city, in 2014.

Since Daesh's self-proclaimed caliphate was defeated in 2017, US troops have been providing Iraqi security forces with critical intelligence on the group's movements, aerial surveillance and reconnaissance.

"The most important question now is whether Iraq's security institutions have prepared a viable Plan B for the post-coalition phase," said retired Iraqi Army General Mohammed al-Jubouri, who led a brigade in the war against Daesh.

"One of the worst-case scenarios would be Daesh obtaining armed drones or improvised explosive drones at a time when Iraq still lacks sufficient air defense capabilities to counter such threats effectively."

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