MCD Stock Heads For Worst Month Since Pandemic - CFO Warns Even A September US Sales Rebound May Not Save Q3

(MENAFN- AsiaNet News)

• McDonald's expects U.S. sales to turn positive in September after slightly negative results in July and August.
• CFO Ian Borden still expects U.S. sales to be“slightly negative” for the full third quarter.
• Its NEXT strategy targets gains in chicken and beverage market share, greater restaurant efficiency and faster expansion.

Shares of McDonald's (MCD) are heading for their worst month since March 2020, when pandemic shutdowns sent restaurant sales plunging. This time, the company expects U.S. sales to improve in September, but its CFO says that the progress may still leave the third quarter in negative territory.

MCD stock fell 5% on Wednesday, its worst one-day decline since April 2025. Shares are down 9% so far this month and have declined in six of the past seven months.

McDonald's Sees A September Rebound, But A Weak Q3 

CFO Ian Borden told investors on Wednesday that U.S. sales were“slightly negative” in both July and August.“We expect September will be positive,” he said.“But I think because of that slower start to the beginning of the quarter, I think we expect the U.S. business will be slightly negative for Q3.”

The stock's last worst monthly performance came as COVID-19 restrictions upended McDonald's business. In March 2020, U.S. comparable sales fell 13% and global comparable sales dropped 22%, erasing strong gains from January and February. McDonald's closed U.S. dining rooms while keeping drive-thru, takeout and delivery running. Meanwhile, restaurants in several major European markets closed entirely.

Today's pressures are different. CEO Chris Kempczinski said in a Wednesday CNBC interview that the company expects industry traffic to remain largely flat and inflation to stay elevated for years. In this environment, he said, McDonald's must earn a greater share of customer visits.

McDonald's Tests A New Offer For Budget Diners

McDonald's U.S. President Skye Anderson said that the chain will emphasize meal bundles, value meals and digital offers through the rest of 2026, while simplifying restaurant operations and improving food execution. A revised entry-level value program is being tested, with more details expected next year.

Kempczinski said that the entry-level offer is particularly important for lower-income customers. McDonald's has made progress on its base menu prices and meal bundles, he told analysts, but still has work to do on an affordable U.S. entry point.

Anderson also acknowledged a problem beyond price:“While there is so much our customers love, we are falling short when it comes to consistent execution.” She said restaurant teams need to focus on“doing fewer things well.”

McDonald's Bets On Chicken, Drinks And New Restaurants

McDonald's  NEXT strategy aims to gain 1.5 percentage points of market share in both chicken and beverages by 2030, while retaining its lead in beef. The company also targets about 250 basis points of gross restaurant-level efficiency gains and an operating margin in the low-to-mid-50% range.

The company estimates that the efficiency gains could eventually add $100,000 in annual cash flow for the average U.S. restaurant. To help fund the overhaul, it plans about $8.5 billion in franchisee support through 2036, including $5 billion by 2030.

Expansion is another part of the plan. McDonald's expects net restaurant unit growth of nearly 4.5% in 2027, with new openings contributing nearly 2.5% to systemwide sales growth that year. That gives the company another way to grow while it works to restore momentum at existing U.S. restaurants.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About MCD?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for MCD jumped to 'extremely bullish' from 'bullish' levels a day ago amid a 470% surge in 24-hour message volumes.

MCD sentiment and message volume as of September 23 | Source: Stocktwits

One user said,“Last time $MCD penetrated the Monthly Bollinger Bands this far was COVID 2020. Price is back at levels not seen since July 2024. Warren Buffett is drooling right now”

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Another user said,“$MCD 1000 shares 238.62. Covered calls after up atleasr 10,000.00. (Far out the money covered calls...cant lose my position!).....fat dividends on 1000 shares which will pay 1900 in December. Soooooo...Covered call Premium. Dividends. Appreciation. The tripple wammy.”

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MCD stock has declined 20% year-to-date.

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