Dutch Hospitality 2026: Consumer Caution Keeps Volume Growth Flat

(MENAFN- ING) Stagnating volume growth in 2026

In 2026, we expect little to no volume growth in the Dutch hospitality industry. Due to rising prices and continued geopolitical uncertainty, consumers are tightening their purse strings this year, just like in 2025. A meaningful recovery remains distant; even in 2027, volume growth is projected to reach only around 0.5%. This suggests that the sector is entering a prolonged period of subdued demand.

Stagnating growth for the Dutch hospitality industry expected in 2026

Volume growth in the Dutch hospitality industry, year-on-year

Source: CBS, *forecasts 2026 and 2027 ING Research

"> Volume contraction for restaurants and cafés in first half of 2026

Despite stronger consumer spending in the second quarter, restaurants and cafés have yet to benefit from this trend. ING payment data indicates that sales volumes in the sector fell by 1.6% in the first half of 2026 compared with a year earlier. While turnover increased by almost 3%, this growth was fully attributable to higher prices rather than greater demand. The decline in volumes reflects changing consumer behaviour, with households becoming more selective in their spending. Higher fuel costs and broader economic uncertainty are prompting consumers to reduce discretionary expenses, such as dining out and holidays.

Fewer overnight stays in hotels and holiday parks

The accommodation sector shows a similar trend, with overnight stays declining by 1.5% in the first half of 2026 compared with a year earlier. Holiday parks recorded the sharpest decline at 2.5%, while overnight hotel stays fell by almost 2%. One factor may be the increase in the VAT rate on accommodation from 9% to 21% in January 2026, which has made hotel rooms and holiday homes around 11% more expensive than in 2025. As campsites are exempt from the higher VAT rate, they have strengthened their price competitiveness relative to other accommodation options.

Fewer overnight stays in hotels and holiday parks in the first half of 2026

Development in the number of overnight stays in the Netherlands by accommodation, January - June (2026 vs 2025)

Source: CBS, ING Research

"> On average, 5% higher prices in 2026

Due to the VAT increase and the resurgence of inflation, hospitality prices are expected to rise by around 5% on average in 2026, following an increase of 4% in 2025. These higher prices reflect continued pressure from rising labour, rental and procurement costs. By the end of 2025, prices in the hospitality industry were on average a quarter higher than in 2022.

However, the scope for further price increases appears to be diminishing. A recent ING survey found that two-thirds of Dutch respondents consider current prices in cafés and restaurants to be excessively high. This suggests that many hospitality businesses may be approaching the limit of what customers are willing to pay, making it increasingly difficult to offset rising costs through higher prices alone.

Hospitality prices expected to rise by 5% in 2026

Consumer price index (cpi) for restaurants and hotels in the Netherlands

Source: CBS, *forecasts 2026 ING Research

"> Focus on cost control and clear positioning

As a result of rising costs and persistent labour shortages, improving labour productivity is becoming increasingly important for many restaurants and cafés seeking to maintain profitability. Productivity gains can be achieved by further standardising and streamlining operations. Measures include introducing fixed menus, reducing menu complexity, improving inventory management, increasing table occupancy through multiple seating rounds per day, and implementing more efficient workflows in both the kitchen and restaurant service.

On the cost side, companies are focusing on more strategic purchasing and selectively switching to lower-cost alternatives to keep procurement expenses under control. As margin pressure continues to mount, the combination of productivity improvements and tighter cost management is becoming increasingly critical to preserving profitability and long-term earning capacity across the sector.

Restaurants and cafés focus on further streamlining operations to boost productivity

Measures restaurants and cafes take to improve productivity, percentage of businesses, April 2026

Source: CBS, ING Research

"> The Dutch hospitality industry faces a mixed cocktail of trends

The hospitality sector is navigating a challenging period marked by modest growth, margin pressure and structural change. Restaurants and cafés, in particular, operate in an increasingly competitive market where profitability is under constant pressure, making distinctiveness and strategic focus more important than ever.

An increasingly clear divide is emerging within the sector. On one side are predominantly larger hospitality businesses that successfully adapt to changing consumer preferences and market conditions through innovative concepts and economies of scale. On the other are many smaller companies that struggle to make this transition, often due to limited financial resources, outdated business models or the age and risk appetite of the entrepreneur.

This widening gap is contributing to ongoing dynamism in the sector. More traditional hospitality businesses are expected to either close or be acquired. As competitive pressure intensifies, strategic investments in innovation, sustainability, cost management, and customer loyalty are becoming essential to ensure long-term viability and resilience.

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