Houthis Have Further Tightened Their Grip On The Red Sea

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The Houthis have said their direct targets are Saudi Arabian vessels and Saudi oil. But countries across Europe, Asia and Africa rely on goods moving out of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

From the strategic position of Mocha, just 75 kilometres north of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Houthi rebels can disrupt and effectively control global shipping in and out of the strait.

Maritime traffic can be quickly ground to a halt, using light, asymmetric means such as drones, anti-ship missiles and fast attack boats.

Settling in for a long war

The Houthis doubling down on controlling a vital shipping route in the Red Sea marks a turning point in the ongoing war between the United States and Iran. It shows the Houthis, and by extension Iran, are not backing down from a long war with the US.

Although Iranian involvement was not directly stated, it is highly unlikely the Houthis would have acted without Iran's approval. Iran and the Houthis now have a stranglehold over two vital waterways for global shipping.

The timing and strategic importance of Houthi gains does not seem a coincidence. It shows the Iranian regime is using leverage where it can, to maintain and increase pressure on the global economy, on the US and on neighbouring countries.

For global shipping, disruption is a new normal

Global supply chains have gone from being a complex operation to a high-risk, highly-vulnerable sector. Even before war broke out between the US and Iran earlier this year, a 2025 UN trade and development report had expected disruptions to continue until at least 2030 with rerouting of ships becoming commonplace.

The latest Houthi move shows an“erosion of US influence” over global shipping. On Saturday, US President Donald Trump said the Houthis had asked the US not to intervene. Trump also refused a request from the Saudi Crown Prince to join Saudi strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen.

With Bab el-Mandeb looking increasingly dangerous, countries in the region are likely to redouble efforts on constructing road and rail routes to transport goods out of the region.

This will take time to be fully functional, and will not support the same volume as maritime routes. Meanwhile, the global economy will still need to reorganise, with increased fuel prices and rising inflation.

Europe may be drawn into the fight

A full closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait may draw European allies into the war between the US and Iran, something they have so far avoided. European leaders have refused to join the US in a military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, or attempts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force.

Trump has criticized European leaders for reticence to join the US war with Iran.