Europe's Gas Storage Hits 14-Year Low Threat as Winter Nears

(MENAFN) Europe is entering the winter heating season with natural gas storage levels running well below normal, as disruptions to liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments continue pushing prices sharply upward.

European natural gas prices surged to their highest point in more than three and a half years on Sept. 8, driven by escalating tensions between the US and Iran that have disrupted Gulf LNG flows amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The slowdown in LNG imports has, in turn, throttled the pace at which Europe can refill its storage ahead of the cold months. Qatar, one of the world's top LNG exporters, has largely halted shipments and extended force majeure declarations on cargoes bound for European and Asian buyers through the fall.

Figures from Gas Infrastructure Europe show EU storage facilities were roughly 68% full as of Sept. 14, holding about 772 terawatt-hours of gas — well short of the 90% target the bloc typically aims for heading into winter. That shortfall has raised questions about how fast inventories can be rebuilt, and how markets would react if supply stays tight or temperatures drop.

What the Numbers Mean
“We are now at the highest price since the start of the Iran crisis but still much lower than the peaks we saw in 2022," said Bill Farren-Price, a distinguished research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, referencing the price spike that followed the Russia-Ukraine war.
He told media that current market pressure stems from “the tightness of global LNG markets due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the loss of Qatari LNG.”

A July analysis from Wood Mackenzie similarly tied rising prices to historically low European inventories, renewed instability around the Strait of Hormuz, and growing Asian LNG demand.
“Low European inventories, strong Asian demand and limited new LNG supply growth almost guarantee elevated prices through this winter and into 2027,” said Massimo Di Odoardo, vice president of Gas and LNG Research at Wood Mackenzie.

Erisa Pasko, lead European gas analyst at Energy Aspects, said the concern isn't just how much gas is sitting in storage.

“The issue is not simply whether Europe has enough gas in volumetric terms, but whether storage can deliver that gas quickly enough during periods of peak demand,” she told media.
She explained that Europe's withdrawal capacity begins dropping off meaningfully once storage falls below roughly 40% — around 44 bcm — and worsens sharply below the 20% mark.

This winter's setup looks markedly different from the last major energy crunch. “The closest useful comparison is 2021–22, when Europe entered winter with around 75% of storage capacity filled,” Pasko said. Back then, she noted, Europe had far more flexibility on both supply and demand — including greater optionality on Russian pipeline gas, more capacity to switch from coal to gas, and stronger domestic production flexibility. “Much of that flexibility has disappeared,” she said.

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