Russia Seeking To Intimidate Poland, Weaken Support For Ukraine, Former Polish DM Says

(MENAFN- UkrinForm) Former Polish Defense Minister Janusz Onyszkiewicz said this in a comment to Ukrinform, responding to Russia's recent strikes near the Ukrainian-Polish border.

“Russia is not yet prepared to launch an overt attack on Polish territory as a NATO member state that it could openly acknowledge. However, covert attacks are possible, in which Moscow would deny any involvement. This would be a continuation of its policy of intimidating Poland and the Polish people and fostering resistance within Polish society to supporting Ukraine in this Russia-Ukraine war,” Onyszkiewicz said.

He noted that Russia cannot achieve its goals in the war directly on the battlefield and will therefore seek to do so by influencing public sentiment and opinion in NATO countries, particularly Poland.

“Poland is geographically closest to Ukraine and may therefore be the most vulnerable to such intimidation,” the Polish expert emphasized.

Onyszkiewicz believes Russia's efforts in Poland are focused on two main areas. The first involves intimidating Poland with the prospect of a conflict with Russia, including the consequences of providing military support to Ukraine, while the second is aimed at weakening support for Ukrainians among Polish society.

According to him, in this context Moscow is seeking to exploit a certain degree of war fatigue, the presence of a large number of Ukrainians in Poland, as well as Ukrainian-Polish disputes over historical issues.

“Russia is playing on two fronts. First, intimidation, and second, an attempt to fuel anti-Ukrainian sentiment in Poland,” Onyszkiewicz said.

At the same time, he noted that the Polish authorities are responding appropriately to acts of aggression against Ukrainians in Poland. According to him, those responsible for such incidents are quickly identified and held accountable.

The politician also described the growing anti-Ukrainian rhetoric from Poland's far right as a negative development.

“This undoubtedly benefits Russia, although it is difficult to say that this is agent activity – at least for now. But there is no doubt that these actions benefit Russia and harm Poland, Europe and Ukraine,” he said.

Read also: Former Polish Chief of General Staff: Russia seeks to disrupt arms supplies to Ukraine

The former Polish minister did not rule out the possibility that Russia could resort to armed provocations on Polish territory, but believes large-scale operations are unlikely.

“I think the likelihood of such attacks occurring is quite high. At the same time, I do not think they will be very large-scale,” he said.

According to him, Russia could attempt to carry out such attacks under a“false flag” in order to shift responsibility for them onto someone else, for example, Ukraine.

“Russia will claim that these are Ukrainian attacks, that the Ukrainians are deliberately carrying them out so that these actions can later be attributed to Russia,” the Polish politician said.

Onyszkiewicz put the likelihood of a Russian provocation in Poland at around 70%. In his view, one potentially convenient period for Moscow could be the run-up to Christmas, when any incident could have a particularly strong impact on public sentiment.

“Before Christmas could be a convenient time for this kind of action, as it could particularly painfully disrupt the atmosphere of anticipation of the holiday,” he explained.

At the same time, Onyszkiewicz believes the current Polish government will continue to strongly support Ukraine.

“As for the current government and the current ruling coalition, support for Ukraine will remain unwavering and will continue to be as strong as possible, including through concrete foreign policy actions,” he said.

At the same time, he believes public support for Ukraine in Poland could weaken somewhat.

“Public opinion may, under the influence of various factors, weaken, I think, but only to a limited extent,” the politician said.

He also did not rule out a significant change in the situation after Poland's parliamentary elections in autumn 2027 if right-wing forces come to power.

“If the right comes to power after the next elections, this drift toward stronger anti-Ukrainian sentiment and weaker support for Ukraine could become more pronounced,” Onyszkiewicz said.

As reported by Ukrinform, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said during an emergency meeting on the security situation in Poland the previous day that Poland must be prepared for increased Russian activity in the coming weeks and months, and that an escalation affecting Polish territory could not be ruled out.

Overnight on September 13, a Russian attack damaged a gas station in Volyn near the Yahodyn border crossing with Poland, as well as a locomotive near the Polish border.

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