Canada HVAC Equipment Market (2026-2031) - Rising Demand For Energy-Efficient Systems Drives Growth
Dublin, Sept. 14, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- "Canada HVAC Equipment - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026-2031)" has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.
Canada HVAC Equipment Market to Reach USD 8.85 Billion by 2031 as Heat Pump Adoption Accelerates
The Canada HVAC equipment market reached USD 5.98 billion in 2026 and is projected to grow to USD 8.85 billion by 2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of 8.16%. Market expansion is being supported by federal incentives, stricter energy-efficiency regulations, rising construction activity and growing demand for low-emission heating and cooling systems.
Federal Incentives Strengthen Heat Pump Demand
Heat pumps are emerging as a central growth driver for the Canada HVAC equipment market. Rebates averaging CAD 10,000 (USD 7,299) per household through the Oil to Heat Pump Affordability Program helped finance 274,000 residential installations by November 2025. Cold-climate systems engineered to operate at temperatures as low as -25C represented 68% of these projects, highlighting continued advances in compressor technology and winter performance.
Provincial programs are also making HVAC electrification more affordable. Quebec's Chauffez vert incentives reduced net homeowner costs to approximately CAD 3,500 (USD 2,554), contributing to a 34% year-over-year increase in regional installations. Federal plans to eliminate oil heating from public buildings before 2030 are expected to further encourage adoption. Early users have reported annual fuel-cost savings of up to 50%, prompting distributors to expand variable-speed heat pump inventories ahead of an anticipated threefold increase in annual shipments by 2030.
Green Building Standards Accelerate HVAC Upgrades
Canada's evolving building codes are directing investment toward high-efficiency HVAC equipment. The 2025 edition of the National Energy Code for Buildings lowers energy-use-intensity limits by 15%, supporting broader adoption of heat-recovery ventilation in new multifamily developments. Ontario's revised SB-10 requirements call for demand-controlled ventilation in commercial properties exceeding 10,000 square metres, creating retrofit opportunities for older constant-air-volume systems.
British Columbia's Step Code also provides development incentives for projects that exceed baseline heat pump performance requirements. In addition, LEED v4.1 and the Canada Green Building Council's Zero Carbon Building standard increasingly treat HVAC efficiency as an important procurement criterion. These policies are strengthening demand for equipment with independently verified seasonal efficiency ratings.
Workforce Shortages Present a Market Constraint
Despite favorable demand, Canada's shortage of skilled HVAC technicians remains a significant challenge. Approximately 10,000 technician vacancies in 2025 extended some commercial retrofit schedules by as much as six weeks. Alberta and Saskatchewan face particularly acute shortages because competing oil and gas trades offer average annual wages approximately CAD 20,000 (USD 14,598) higher than those available through HVAC employers.
Apprenticeship completion among refrigeration mechanics declined to 52% in 2024, complicating installations involving variable-refrigerant-flow systems and A2L refrigerants. In response, some manufacturers have established direct installation teams and remote diagnostic centers, although these initiatives have increased internal overhead by nearly 10%. Continued workforce constraints could limit Canada HVAC equipment market growth during periods of peak retrofit activity.
Air-Conditioning Equipment Leads Market Performance
Air-conditioning equipment accounted for 46.14% of the Canada HVAC equipment market in 2025 and is forecast to expand at a 9.49% CAGR through 2031. Ductless mini-split systems are gaining traction in older homes and low-rise condominiums without existing ductwork. Shipments of multi-zone systems rose 22% year over year in 2025, supported by high-efficiency models and favorable payback periods in provinces with time-of-use electricity pricing.
Variable-refrigerant-flow systems are also replacing conventional rooftop equipment in commercial mid-rise buildings because of their zoning flexibility and ability to provide simultaneous heating and cooling. Heating equipment remains the market's second-largest category, led by heat pumps. In British Columbia, heat pumps now outsell gas furnaces following restrictions on new natural gas connections for low-rise buildings.
Ventilation equipment recorded additional growth as schools and hospitals responded to infection-control requirements. Demand for MERV 13 and HEPA filtration products increased 18% in 2025. Water-cooled chillers are gaining share within Toronto's district-energy network, while packaged rooftop units remain widely used by single-story retail properties and controlled-environment agricultural facilities.
Retrofit Projects Dominate HVAC Investment
Retrofit and replacement projects represented 62.35% of the Canadian market in 2025. Federal rebates are shortening replacement cycles for fossil-fuel heating equipment, particularly in Atlantic Canada, where oil furnaces are being retired an average of 3.2 years earlier than historical norms. Office properties built between 1980 and 2000 are also prioritizing HVAC modernization to meet tenant demand for efficient, sustainability-aligned workplaces.
New construction is forecast to grow at a 9.84% CAGR, supported by zoning reforms and higher-density development. Ontario's More Homes Built Faster Act contributed to a 19% increase in mixed-use starts during the first half of 2025. Developers are increasingly installing heat-recovery ventilators and cold-climate heat pumps as standard features, while data centers continue to generate premium demand for precision cooling systems designed to meet stringent energy-performance requirements.
Key Topics Covered:
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
1.2 Scope of the Study
2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
4 MARKET LANDSCAPE
4.1 Market Overview
4.2 Market Drivers
4.2.1 Surge in Construction Activity
4.2.2 Expansion of Green Building Standards and Energy Efficiency Regulations
4.2.3 Rising Demand for Heat Pumps Supported by Federal Incentives
4.2.4 Electrification Mandates in Remote Communities Accelerating Modular HVAC Adoption
4.2.5 Federal Carbon Pricing Driving Early Replacement Cycles
4.2.6 Growth of Cannabis Cultivation Facilities Requiring Specialized HVAC
4.3 Market Restraints
4.3.1 High Maintenance and Repair Costs
4.3.2 Shortage of Skilled HVAC Technicians
4.3.3 Supply-Chain Dependence on US Components Creating Currency Risk
4.3.4 Low-GWP Refrigerant Phase-Down Increasing Retrofit Complexity
4.4 Industry Value Chain Analysis
4.5 Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the Market
4.6 Regulatory Landscape
4.7 Technological Outlook
4.8 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
4.8.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
4.8.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
4.8.3 Threat of New Entrants
4.8.4 Threat of Substitutes
4.8.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry
4.9 Key Performance Indicators
5 MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH FORECASTS (VALUE)
5.1 By Equipment Type
5.1.1 Heating Equipment
5.1.1.1 Boilers and Furnaces
5.1.1.2 Heat Pumps
5.1.1.3 Unitary Heaters
5.1.2 Ventilation Equipment
5.1.2.1 Air Handling Units (AHUs)
5.1.2.2 Air Filters
5.1.2.3 Fan Coil Units
5.1.2.4 Humidifiers and Dehumidifiers
5.1.3 Air-Conditioning Equipment
5.1.3.1 Unitary Air Conditioners
5.1.3.1.1 Ducted Splits
5.1.3.1.2 Ductless Mini-Splits
5.1.3.1.3 Packaged Rooftops
5.1.3.1.4 Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) Systems
5.1.3.2 Room Air Conditioners
5.1.3.3 Packaged Terminal Air Conditioners
5.1.3.4 Chillers
5.2 By Installation Type
5.2.1 New Construction
5.2.2 Retrofit / Replacement
5.3 By End User
5.3.1 Residential
5.3.2 Commercial
5.3.3 Industrial
5.4 By Building Type (Commercial)
5.4.1 Office Buildings
5.4.2 Healthcare Facilities
5.4.3 Hospitality and Leisure
5.4.4 Retail Stores and Malls
5.4.5 Educational Institutions
5.4.6 Data Centers
6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
6.1 Market Concentration
6.2 Strategic Moves
6.3 Market Share Analysis
6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global Level Overview, Market Level Overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share, Products and Services, Recent Developments)
6.4.1 Carrier Global Corporation
6.4.2 Johnson Controls International plc
6.4.3 Trane Technologies plc
6.4.4 Daikin Industries Ltd.
6.4.5 Lennox International Inc.
6.4.6 Rheem Manufacturing Company Inc.
6.4.7 LG Electronics Inc.
6.4.8 Nortek Air Solutions LLC
6.4.9 Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
6.4.10 Engineered Air (Canada) Ltd.
6.4.11 Gree Canada
6.4.12 Bosch Thermotechnology Corp.
6.4.13 Panasonic Corporation
6.4.14 Fujitsu General Ltd.
6.4.15 Goodman Manufacturing Company L.P.
6.4.16 Viessmann Manufacturing Co. Inc.
6.4.17 Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd.
6.4.18 Stulz GmbH
6.4.19 Danfoss A/S
6.4.20 Yorkland Controls Ltd.
7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE OUTLOOK
7.1 White-Space and Unmet-Need Assessment
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