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Greetings, trust this email finds you well, please find below market co ment

Written by Linh Tran, Market Analyst at XS

Bitcoin is trading within th– 76,000–82,000 USD range following a strong rally in the second half of August.’The price’s inability to continue rising indicates that buying momentum has slowed, but the market has yet to experience enough selling pressure to completely reverse the previous recovery. Overall, Bitcoin appears to be entering a period of equilibrium as profit-taking increases while new capital becomes more cautious.
The current sideways movement is primarily due to the price having risen by nearly 30% within a short period. As the profits of buyers who entered at lower levels expanded rapidly, the incentive to realize those gains inevitably increased. At the same time, investors who previously purchased Bitcoin at higher prices tend to sell as the market recovers toward their break-even levels, increasing supply and slowing the rally.
ETF flows have also become less stable. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted more than 1 billion USD in net inflows during the first three trading sessions of September, but subsequently recorded approximately 463 million USD in net outflows over four consecutive sessions. This suggests that institutional demand has not disappeared, but has become more sensitive to price and the monetary policy outlook. ETFs continue to help Bitcoin absorb part of the available supply, but have yet to generate sufficiently sustainable buying pressure to extend the recovery.
Recently, the renewed increase in U.S. inflation, persistently elevated oil prices and the 10-year Treasury yield approaching 5% have strengthened the possibility that the Fed will continue tightening policy. In a high-cost-of-capital environment, investors tend to favor cash and short-term bonds over highly volatile assets. Bitcoin therefore remains under pressure as an asset sensitive to liquidity, rather than clearly benefiting from safe-haven demand. The macroeconomic environment is evidently one of the key reasons capital flows have become more cautious.
In addition, on-chain data shows that Bitcoin is experiencing localized profit-taking, but has not yet entered a broad distribution phase. Over the 30 days through mid-August, the amount of Bitcoin that had remained unmoved for more than one year declined by approximately 356,500 BTC, indicating that part of the older supply had returned to circulation. Bitcoin reserves on Binance also rose to near their highest level of 2026, increasing the amount of assets potentially available for trading.
However, more recent data shows that selling pressure has fallen to less than half its August peak, while new capital continues to enter the network. Strategy did not purchase additional Bitcoin during the most recent week, but this currently represents only a temporary interruption in a major source of demand.
Overall, the current signals reflect a process of reaccumulation accompanied by profit-taking, rather than confirming that Bitcoin has entered a clear distribution phase.
The price has remained relatively stable despite ETF outflows, rising yields and expectations of more aggressive tightening from the Fed. Bitcoin is also trading above the average cost basis of approximately 71,200 USD for short-term holders, indicating that most recent buyers remain profitable and are not yet under pressure to sell at a loss.
In my view, Bitcoin currently leans toward a state of reaccumulation accompanied by localized distribution. Some investors are realizing profits, but this supply is still being absorbed by new capital. The near-term outlook will therefore depend primarily on whether ETF flows recover and how hawkish the Fed remains.
If financial conditions become less restrictive and institutional capital returns, Bitcoin could resume its recovery, revisit the 82,100–82,200 USD peak and potentially extend toward 84,0–0–85,000 USD. Conversely, continued ETF outflows while yields remain elevated would prolong the sideways phase and increase the risk of a correction. In that case, the area around 72–000–73,000 USD would become noteworthy.

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