Oil Could Hit $200 If Hormuz Stays Shut, UBS Economist Warns

(MENAFN- Swissinfo) Oil prices could soar to $200 (CHF162) a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a prolonged period, UBS economist Alessandro Bee told the Keystone-ATS news agency, warning that such a scenario could trigger a global economic slump. Select your language

Generated with artificial intelligence. Listening: Oil could hit $200 if Hormuz stays shut, UBS economist warns This content was published on September 11, 2026 - 11:01 2 minutes Keystone-SDA

Italiano it UBS:“prezzo del petrolio a 200 dollari se Hormuz rimane chiuso” Original Read more: UBS:“prezzo del petrolio a 200 dollari se Hormuz rimane ch

“In our base-case scenario, we assume that the oil market will recover gradually over the coming quarters, albeit with some volatility,” the expert told the news agency.

“We expect prices to range between $80 -100 dollars a barrel. However, if the Strait of Hormuz were to remain closed for several quarters, then oil reserves would eventually run out and the market could panic. In that case, we believe prices of between $150 and $200 are also possible.”

“This would trigger a recession,” the analyst continues. Beyond the Middle East,“a second risk is, of course, Donald Trump's unpredictable economic policy, as seen recently in relations with Canada. As a third risk, I see the artificial intelligence sector. If the major productivity gains fail to materialise, we must expect significant reductions in investment. This could have repercussions on the economy.”

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