Sweden Heads To Polls As Welfare Shapes Race And Right-Wing Seeks Power

(MENAFN- Nam News Network)

BRUSSELS, Sept 11 (NNN-Anadolu) -- Sweden heads to the polls Sunday in a closely contested general election that could determine whether the right-wing Sweden Democrats move from supporting the government from outside to becoming part of it, Anadolu Ajansi (AA) reported.

Opinion polls have pointed to a victory for the centre-left opposition led by the Social Democrats, but the governing centre-right bloc has narrowed the gap in the final weeks of campaigning, leaving the outcome uncertain.

The Sweden Democrats, once isolated by Sweden's established parties because of their far-right roots, have become one of the country's largest political forces and a central player in the right-wing bloc.

The party is now seeking to go beyond supporting the government from outside and enter it itself.

Yet unlike the previous two elections, when migration and gang violence dominated political debate, this campaign has been increasingly defined by healthcare, education, welfare and national security.

Nicholas Aylott, associate professor at Stockholm's Sodertorn University, told Anadolu that "levels of migration have fallen in Sweden quite noticeably... and the rate of criminal violence, which was very high four years ago, is not as high now."

As a result, healthcare, education and elderly care have emerged as some of the issues most important to voters, according to PerOla Oberg, professor at Uppsala University.

The Social Democrats, who governed Sweden for much of the modern era before losing power in 2022, have sought to capitalise on those concerns by presenting themselves as defenders of the welfare state.

The party has proposed higher taxes on banks and high-income earners to finance investment in healthcare and schools while supporting households struggling with rising costs and economic inequality.

Sweden has spent recent years grappling with organised criminal networks, shootings and bombings, prompting governments to introduce tougher legislation and expand police and judicial powers.

Aylott said the Social Democrats would probably maintain much of the government's existing law-and-order policy if they returned to power.

Meanwhile, the Sweden Democrats have pushed for even tougher measures.

This convergence means the election is no longer simply a contest between parties offering fundamentally different approaches to crime and migration.

Instead, voters are increasingly being asked which parties they trust to manage security while also protecting the welfare state.

"This election may therefore be based on who you trust," Aylott said.

The most consequential political development remains the rise of the Sweden Democrats.

For years, mainstream parties sought to isolate the party.

However, the Sweden Democrats' transformation accelerated after the 2022 election, when the party became a key parliamentary ally of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's centre-right government.

Despite remaining outside the Cabinet, they gained substantial influence over government policy, particularly on migration and law and order.

That arrangement could now change. The four parties of the right-wing bloc have agreed that the Sweden Democrats can participate in a government if they secure a parliamentary majority.

For the party, that would represent a historic transition from parliamentary outsider to government participant.

Aylott said the Sweden Democrats have become "a very central part of Swedish political debate today."

The party has become "normalised to quite a large degree," although it remains controversial.

Oberg echoed the view. "The Sweden Democrats' leaders have been very successful in transforming the party from a fringe group into a political party ready to act responsibly."

At the same time, the party has broadened its electoral appeal, with its support now appearing relatively stable at around 20 per cent.

Swedish parties must cross a four per cent threshold to secure representation in parliament through the national vote.

The Liberal Party has struggled to reach that level in opinion polls throughout much of the current parliamentary term.

If the Liberals fail to cross the threshold, the consequences for the right-wing bloc could be severe.

Their votes would not translate into parliamentary seats, potentially depriving the governing bloc of the numbers it needs to retain power.

Even if the right wins the popular vote among the major blocs, losing the Liberals could make forming a government considerably more difficult.

For the opposition, the challenge is almost the mirror image.

The Social Democrats could emerge as the largest party but still struggle to form a majority.

The opposition bloc consists of parties with significant ideological differences.

The Left Party wants representation in any government it supports, while the Centre Party has said it will not participate in a Cabinet together with the Left Party.

That leaves Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson facing a difficult balancing act.

Aylott said the Social Democrats could need support from three other opposition parties to secure a parliamentary majority.

"The challenge for the Social Democrats would be to give the Left Party enough of what it wants, while at the same time keeping the Centre Party.... also happy," he said.

One possible outcome is a minority government.

Under Sweden's "negative parliamentarism" system, a government can take office as long as a majority of lawmakers does not vote against it.

That could allow the Social Democrats to lead a government with the Greens while relying on outside support from the Left and Centre parties.

Oberg said a stronger showing by the Centre Party could also make a broader Social Democrat-Green-Centre coalition possible.

Despite the opposition's polling advantage, the election is far from settled.

Three polls in the final week have put the four left-wing parties at roughly 50 per cent, compared with around 47 per cent for the four parties on the right.

The difference is narrow enough for the result to remain uncertain.

Oberg estimated that, based on their electoral strength, the Sweden Democrats could potentially seek as many as 12 ministerial positions.

That could place them in charge of major portfolios and make the party directly responsible for policy rather than merely influential from outside government.

If the right-wing bloc wins, government formation could be relatively straightforward.

The existing coalition would have a clear incentive to continue its relationship with the Sweden Democrats, although their demand for formal ministerial representation could generate difficult negotiations.

If the opposition wins, the process could be considerably more complicated.

The Social Democrats would have to navigate competing demands from the Left and Centre parties while potentially relying on the Greens.

Sweden has experienced prolonged government negotiations before.

After the 2018 election, it took 134 days to form a government, an exceptionally long period by Swedish standards.

Aylott does not expect negotiations to last that long this time, but he cautioned that a left-wing victory could produce an extended period of bargaining.

"There'll be lots of bluff, and there'll be lots of angry demands, and there'll be lots of complaints," he said. "And it might take time."

There is also a slim possibility that one of the right-wing parties could support a Social Democrat-led government without formally joining it.

Aylott regards such a scenario as unlikely but not impossible.

Whatever the result, analysts expect the election to produce evolution rather than revolution.

--NNN-ANADOLU

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